Donald Trump has lived his entire life as if he were trying to prove the theory that all publicity (good or bad) is positive.
His appearance this Tuesday before a criminal court as indicted for an alleged illegal payment to former porn actress Stormy Daniels will test that cliché to the limit.
This case has certainly put him back in the spotlight.
His trip from Mar-a-Lago, his home in Florida, to New York was broadcast live on several American television channels.
Supposedly, he was discussing with his advisers how he should appear throughout the court process: smiling defiantly or looking grim and serious?
Like it or not, this court date is also a campaign eventahead of the 2024 elections. The big question is whether Trump can really turn criminal proceedings into electoral assets.
His decisions in the past in moments of political crisis serve as a guide to what we can see from here on out.
Throughout his 2016 presidential campaign, the millionaire politician leaned into conflict when others might have backed down.
Sentenced for criticizing war hero John McCain? Trump reinforced his attacks. Accused of sexual harassment before a debate with Hillary Clinton? He gave a press conference with three women who accused Bill Clinton of sexual assault.
During his presidency, it was the same story through two impeachment trials, a special prosecutor’s investigation into Russian election meddling and countless minor controversies.
The best defense, as the saying goes, is a good offense.
In recent weeks, Trump has responded to Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Braggpresenting it as a fiscal progressive bent on seeking political reprisals against him. With his speech, she seeks to position herself as a victim of the progressive elite.
And this Tuesday, hours before appearing before the judge, he wrote on the Truth Social platform: “The radical Democratic left has criminalized the judicial system. This is not how America was supposed to be.”
Water for your mill
His campaign team boasts about the amount of money they have raised thanks to the judicial process; They assure that between Thursday, March 30, the day the accusation against him was announced, and Monday night, March 3, they totaled more than US$8 million.
And Trump himself cited in his Truth Social account a Reuters/Ipsos poll showing a extension of the electoral advantage with its main rival in power within the Republican Party, the governor of the state of Florida, Ron DeSantisin the last days.
On March 20, the former president had 44% of the preferences among Republican voters compared to 30% for DeSantis. On Monday, April 3, 48% of those surveyed responded that they would vote for Trump, and only 19% for the governor, thus widening the gap with the second candidate to 29 points.
Trump did not have a mugshot taken, but before this was known, his former White House spokesman Hogan Gidley jokingly declared that it would be “the manliest, most masculine, most beautiful mugshot of all time.”
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Republican, and other prominent elected officials have played into Trump’s hands and sand they echo are rhetoric by condemning the New York investigation as an illegitimate political attack.
“Several reporters have asked me if an impeachment would lead me to withdraw my endorsement of Donald Trump,” said Ohio Senator JD Vance.
“The answer is: of course not! Politically-motivated prosecution strengthens the case for Trump. We just don’t have a real country if justice depends on politics,” she added.
What is particularly interesting is looking at how Trump’s political opponents within the Republican Party they have felt compelled to come to their defense.
DeSantis, for example, said Thursday on Twitter that “weaponizing the legal system to further a political agenda turns the rule of law upside down,” calling it “un-American.”
He also pointed to the Manhattan district attorney as “supported by [George] Soros”the tycoon accused by conservative groups of financing politicians and left-wing pressure groups in the world.
And he added that he would not help if there was a request for Trump’s extradition from Florida to New York.
Ultimately that did not happen because Trump traveled voluntarily.
Mike Pencea former US vice president during the Trump administration, said the impeachment sends a “terrible message” to the world about justice in his country.
They obviously believe that is what their voters want to hear.
So maybe Trump can use a criminal trial to his advantage during the electoral primaries, when loyal Republicans are the ones who vote.
John McGuigan, an ardent Trump supporter who was outside Trump Tower in Manhattan on Monday, believes this court case will help his presidential campaign.
“Those who are already convinced that Donald Trump is the devil incarnate will not be affected by the outcome, nor will die-hard Trump supporters.”he opined.
But “for those voters who fall somewhere in the middle, this may end up being more of a boon than a detriment to the 2024 Trump campaign,” he observed.
Points against
This tactic could backfire when it comes to the general election.
By turning impeachment into political spectacle, Trump risks alienating the very voters he would need to recapture the White House in November 2024.
This case aside, his legal troubles, which include investigations by Georgia officials and a federal special prosecutor, highlight character traits many Republican voters have said they dislike about him.
His belligerent online persona and lack of personal discipline came under fire from DeSantis weeks ago.
It may also be a significant distraction for the former president and his campaign, who will have to react to events in New York that are totally out of their control, in a context in which court appearances will compete on Trump’s schedule with Republican debates and primaries to win their party’s nomination.
And if the former president were to overcome the odds and win the Republican nomination, his legal woes are far more likely to play a negative role against the Democratic nominee.
“In the end, being indicted never helps anybody,” former New Jersey Republican Gov. Chris Christie said during an interview with ABC News. “Donald Trump is not someone who could be a winning Republican Party general election candidate,” he opined.
While Trump has survived the kind of scandals and investigations over the past eight years that would kill other candidates, luck can run out and even the best of political instincts can falter when circumstances change.
Even the toughest of ships can be wrecked in unfamiliar waters.