Since 1is avril, images of the first British Challengers 2 tanks circulating in Ukraine have appeared on social networks. Deliveries of equipment, intensification of training and intelligence… The kyiv counter-offensive is on everyone’s mind. This should start during the month of April or at the beginning of May, depending on the weather conditions, explained the country’s defense minister, Oleksii Reznikov, in an interview with the Estonian Public Broadcasting (Eesti Rahvusringhääling, ERR), March 26.
These large-scale maneuvers, the Kremlin troops are already preparing for them: as early as September 2022, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reported that they were building “lines of defense”.
Fortification works underway in southern Ukraine and Crimea
In the region of ZaporijiaRussian forces are at work building fortifications. Satellite images collected between January 26 and February 7 show work near the village of Tarasivka. According to the Institute for the Study of War, the objective is to reinforce their positions along the road from Polohy to Tokmak.
Since the recapture of Kherson in November 2022, the Russians fear that the Ukrainians do not cross the Dnieper and rush towardsIsthmus of Perekop, which allows you to reach the Crimean peninsula from the mainland. So they set out to install anti-tank ditches and dragon’s teeth along the lines of communication, which connect the Russian forces on the east bank of the river with the southeastern rear areas of theoblast de Khersonas well as with the rear around Melitopol.
Sign that the Kremlin troops are not confident in their ability to hold the occupied territories in southern Ukraine, Sergei Aksionov, the head of the Occupied Crimea, told Russia’s official Ria Novosti news agency that the development of a defensive line was continuing in the region; an initiative supported by Vladimir Putin. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense noted in February that some “150 conscripts arrived from Russia’s Chelyabinsk region to carry out engineering work”.
In the region of Mariupol, where the Russians began building fortifications in August 2022, things have accelerated in recent months: they have begun to establish trenches and lay mines there. They also undertook to dig defenses along the highway leading to Donetsk (the H20), over a distance of a hundred kilometers.
Fortifications, including in Russian territory
The Russians have begun building fortifications, sometimes even far from combat zones, on their territory. Since November 2022, Vyacheslav Gladkov, the governor of the oblast of Belgorod – bordered to the south by the Kharkiv region – thus regularly publishes images of trenches or even dragon’s teeth supposed to prevent vehicles from crossing the border. The works having been completed in March, he is now asking Moscow for military personnel to defend them. Same scenes in neighboring Kursk Oblastwhere his counterpart Roman Starovoyt also broadcasts similar photos on Telegram.
A way “to sharpen the patriotic feeling”, summarized in december the UK Ministry of Defence. And to add: “This illustrates the sincere (but false) belief of some Russian decision makers that there is a credible threat of invasion by Ukrainian forces. »
The projects of the Wagner group in the Luhansk region
In the self-proclaimed republic of Luhansk (Donbass)Yevgueni Prigojine, the boss of the Wagner mercenary group, announced in October 2022 the establishment of a line of defense “ at several levels » – even if, according to him, the device is not really “necessary”, “the mere presence of Wagner units on the front line already being an impregnable wall. »
This last did not give any details on its length, its exact location, or the time that the work could take. Videos showed long lines of trucks carrying building material next to Wedding party. The American channel CNN broadcast satellite images of a fortification being developed outside the Russian-occupied town of Hirske – the Zvedza TV channel, run by the Russian Ministry of Defense, clarified that it was a “second line of defense”, if the Ukrainians tried to break into the region. According to a map released by RIA FAN, Mr Prigozhin’s news agency, the Wagner group is considering a line from the east of the Russian-Ukrainian border to Kreminna (Luhansk oblast), then south to Svitlodarsk (Donetsk Oblast). That is, a distance of nearly 220 km.
On the Ukrainian side, the risks of a limited counter-offensive
In addition to combat tanks and infantry vehicles, Ukraine has received valuable equipment to break through the Russian defense lines: demining machines provided by Germany; M60 AVLB (for Armored Vehicle Launched Bridge, “bridge deployed by an armored vehicle”) American or even German Biber, engineer tanks allowing to lay a bridge or cross trenches and anti-tank obstacles.
#Ukraine: The first video showing a German-donated Biber armored bridgelayer ???????? in use with the Ukrainian army – th… https://t.co/54kNU07kqV
But the counter-offensive is likely to be only one shot away. In an interview with the daily The worldBoris Pistorius, the German Defense Minister, explained on 2 April that because of reservations “limited” NATO countries only plan to send two battalions of German Leopard 2 main battle tanks and four battalions of Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine – that’s 160 tanks, barely half of the 300 requested by Kiev. Difficult in these conditions to hope to regain all the territories conquered by the Russians since 2014.