war in Ukraine
Pentagon Papers – that’s what the leak says about Kiev’s attack plans
Cities are being shelled along the front in the Donbas.
© Genya Savilov / AFP
A data leak reveals the strengths and weaknesses of the Ukrainian armed forces. Their losses and the critical situation in air defense. It is also about building up and deploying the newly formed brigades that are supposed to throw back Putin’s troops.
A whole bundle of photographed papers emerged last week that reveal intimate details about the war in Ukraine and also show how deeply involved the West is in Kiev’s specific military plans. The authenticity of the papers can hardly be proven one hundred percent, but the excitement about the leak clearly shows that it is not a fake joke. However, experts assume that individual passages have been changed by the Russian secret service. The leak will cause great damage to Ukraine and the US. The detailed knowledge of Russian military planning can allow Moscow to track down the leaks in its own apparatus. The papers also reveal that the United States continues to spy on its closest allies and then distributes this sensitive information to a wide audience.
High losses
The papers paint a picture in which both armies are visibly battered. Things are also being revealed about the Ukrainian military that no one should know. That starts with the losses. Russian losses up to February are high – but within the expected range. They amount to 189,500 to 223,000 men, of which up to 43,000 have fallen. But Kiev also had to accept 124,500 to 131,000 victims. Of these, 17,500 died. All data are based on US estimates. Both armed forces have therefore lost a large part of their originally deployed troops. While Russia has suffered significantly more casualties, it is far from suffering 1 to 3 casualties or more.
In particular, Ukraine’s air defenses are on shaky ground as supplies of Soviet-designed anti-missile missiles are running low. At the beginning of May, the missiles for the S-300 systems should be used up, which would result in large gaps in strategic air defense. The West has delivered far too few systems to replace the S-300. Without air defense, numerous strategic targets in Ukraine would be defenseless. In addition, the Russians have improved their aerial warfare capabilities in recent weeks. They have succeeded in converting old free-fall bombs into GPS-guided glide bombs. They can be released far from the target and then hit the target accurately.
The new brigades
Plans for the expected Ukrainian counter-offensive have also been leaked, but there are no detailed operational orders among them. According to the leak, Kiev is currently setting up twelve new brigades. Nine are coached by the West. A Ukrainian brigade consists of around 4,000 men, which in earlier times would have been a reinforced regiment. The twelve brigades roughly correspond to four to five full-strength divisions. Of the nine western-trained brigades, six are expected to complete training by March 31 and the rest by April 30. They are said to have more than 250 main battle tanks and more than 350 armored personnel carriers. They form the core of the Ukrainian counter-offensive.
The papers do not contain detailed attack plans at the tactical level. However, they contain a lot of useful information for Moscow on the condition of the Ukrainian units and the lack of ammunition. Among other things, there is information about American real-time warnings of Russian attacks and detailed descriptions of the use of the HIMARS launchers. Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to the President of Ukraine, told Reuters that Ukraine’s strategic plans remain unchanged, but that specific tactical plans are subject to changes. “There are strategic tasks – they are immutable. But operational and tactical scenarios are constantly being refined, based on an assessment of the situation on the battlefield, the deployment of resources, intelligence data on the enemy’s resources, etc.”
Kiev’s counterattack
The Russian attacks during the winter were unsuccessful in several places. In some cases great losses were suffered. Nevertheless, Russia was able to involve the Ukrainian armed forces in defensive battles, which resulted in heavy losses. The situation around Bachmut remains critical. Moscow failed to capture the entire Donbass.
The Ukrainian counter-offensive is expected after the end of the mud period, the time frame coincides with the training periods of the new units. It is unlikely that Kiev will use the armored forces in the fortified Donbass, but a breakthrough across the open terrain to the Black Sea will probably be attempted. The Russian troops have been digging in there for months and are putting up fortifications to stop the expected advance. These include trenches, minefields and anti-tank obstacles and fortified positions whose firing zones form “death zones” for units that have broken through. The papers in the leak also describe how the Russians are preparing for the emergence of modern western tanks. The Russians spread pictures of western tanks that had been shot at, in order to counteract the aura of indestructibility. For this purpose, detailed information about the weak points of the individual models is issued to the troops, and kill bonuses are also promised.
What: Reuters; NYT