Positive thinking? The Wagner group will last only two more months in Bahmut if tactics remain unchanged, Ukrainian official says

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The Wagner mercenaries fighting in Bahmut will last only two more months if their tactics remain unchanged, Serhii Cerevatii, the spokesman of the Eastern Operational Command of the Ukrainian army, said on April 11, reports Kyiv Independent.The Ukrainian’s statement comes on the same day that Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that Wagner had conquered 80% of Bahmut.

Evgheni Prigojin with mercenaries recruited by the Wagner groupPhoto: WillWest News / Profimedia Images

Speaking on national television, Cerevatîi admitted that the forecast is subjective, albeit based on the high casualty rates among Wagner troops.

Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar wrote on February 16 that the Kremlin-backed private mercenary group Wagner and pro-Russian units active in eastern Ukraine are losing up to 80 percent of some assault units.

It was also Cerevatîi who on Tuesday denied the claims of Wagner founder Evgheni Prigojin, who said the mercenary group had captured 80 percent of Bahmut.

“This statement by Prigozhin is not true,” Serhii Cerevatii, the spokesman for the Eastern Operational Command of the Ukrainian forces, told CNN on Tuesday. “I just got in touch with the commander of one of the brigades defending the city. I can confidently state that the Ukrainian Defense Forces control a much larger percentage of Bahmut’s territory.”

The head of the Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, claims that his forces now control more than 80% of the besieged city of Bahmut in eastern Ukraine, The Guardian writes.

In a video posted on Telegram by a Russian military blogger, Prigozhin is seen holding a map of the area, showing his forces continuing to encircle the city. “In Bahmut, most of it, over 80%, is now under our control, including the entire administrative center, factories, warehouses, city administration,” claims Chief Wagner.

Prigozhin’s claims have not been independently verified, and he has made claims in the past about Russian control of Bahmut that have been proven untrue, The Guardian notes.

Ukraine’s ground forces commander Oleksandr Sirskii on Monday accused Russian forces of using “scorched earth” tactics in Bahmut. He said the situation was “difficult but manageable”.

Wagner uses advertisements on the streets of Moscow to attract mercenaries

A huge recruitment notice for Russia’s Wagner mercenary group has appeared on the facade of an office building next to a highway in north-east Moscow, as the group has suffered heavy losses as it fights to gain control of the city of Bahmut in eastern Ukraine.

Its chief, Evgeni Prigozhin, 61, whose company made its fortune catering events and contracts with the Kremlin and government ministries, said in early March that he aimed to recruit 30,000 new fighters by mid-May .

In January, the United States estimated that Wagner had about 50,000 fighters in Ukraine, including 40,000 convicts Prigozhin had recruited from Russian prisons with the promise of a pardon if they survived six months.

Ukrainian officials said about 30,000 of Wagner’s fighters had deserted or been killed or wounded, a figure that could not be independently verified.

Wagner’s boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin, admitted in February that his mercenary group was facing difficulties in Ukraine and would soon “decline” in size, amid growing evidence that its political influence in the Kremlin is waning.

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