2023-04-16 03:03:59
How do you assess the leak of the secret Pentagon documents? Could it be a sting operation, a self-serving leak, or simply human error?
If initial reports are accurate, it appears it hasn’t been any of those things. Although they were, and may continue to be, plausible theories. Instead, it seems that he was simply a young and not very smart person trying to impress the people in his Discord chat group by showing them documents they weren’t supposed to see.
How could Teixeira, a low-ranking military man, have access to such sensitive documents?
It is the key question. I have worked in the Government and have had security clearances. A top-secret clearance does not by itself guarantee that someone will have access to the most sensitive intelligence information. First you have to be authorized for specific “keyword” projects. Teixeira appears to have had top-secret clearance, and then somehow, through access to a computer system, he was able to print and copy these types of documents. If that’s what happened, there’s a huge procedural vulnerability somewhere, and it’s going to have to be addressed.
Could it be a turning point in the Pentagon’s working methods? It seems that no one was paying attention to what was happening on Discord.
There are plenty of networks on the internet that don’t have a deployment of surveillance software designed and operated by the US Government. And this is something that would raise a number of difficult privacy issues. It is not clear how the Pentagon should act in the future. There may be a way, but they can and should control computer access to classified documents much more strictly.
Why do you think the NYT and WP investigations have gone faster than the FBI in identifying the suspect?
Maybe someone tipped them off. I don’t think we know yet.
Has the leak affected the foreign image of the United States and the relationship with its partners whom it appears to have spied on?
Of course. Most of the allied intelligence services are very sophisticated and experienced organizations; they know full well that sometimes things go terribly wrong, without this being a symptom of systematic dysfunction. However, this leak is… well, hardly the worst we’ve ever experienced, but very bad nonetheless. Enemy states can make intelligent inferences about US sources and methods. The frankness of some of these documents may offend some of Washington’s friends. A general malaise about the security of Western secrets may set in temporarily. Countries may be somewhat more reluctant to share information than they would otherwise. Nothing good will come of this, that’s for sure.
How has American public opinion reacted? Will support for Ukraine’s defense decrease?
I do not see a scenario in which the documents significantly reduce US public support for Ukraine, which, despite the attention-grabbing statements of our most Trumpist politicians and social media personalities, remains broad and deep, and probably still includes a majority of mainstream and affiliated Republicans. But there will be and is considerable unease about how the leak could have been possible, and I hope there will be some serious internal investigation and tightening of procedures at the Pentagon and throughout the US intelligence community regarding handling and access to classified documents.
Is it a setback for the Biden Administration? The Republican Party and Trump could take advantage of the situation.
I doubt it. Whatever procedures, existing or ignored, that made this man’s theft and distribution of classified documents possible, were likely already in place before Biden became president. And I don’t think the average American is going to blame the president or his party for the actions of a mere 21-year-old Massachusetts Air National Guardsman. But the Republican Party will criticize the Democrats for this. That’s how things work.
#Enemy #states #inferences #sources #methods