2023-04-16 20:26:45
His speeches were rare throughout the sequence, but Emmanuel Macron decided to take charge himself of closing the chapter on pension reform. The rest of his second five-year term begins with the express promulgation of the law, which followed the green light from the Constitutional Council, and the Head of State wants to mark the occasion with a speech on Monday at 8 p.m. A risky exercise, while the left and the unions promise to “continue the fight” and a call for rallies in front of town halls has already been launched.
But on the government side, we are assured that Emmanuel Macron will speak “in a logic of appeasement”, and not only on pensions. But why does the Head of State want to speak now? What announcements can he still make? What elements of communication does he still have in hand? 20 Minutes examines the interest of this speech, with the decryption of political scientist Bruno Cautrès.
Why does Emmanuel Macron speak on Monday evening?
Play “appeasement”. In speech mode, as during the Covid-19 crisis, Emmanuel Macron puts on the costume of the unifying president. According to Bruno Cautrès, political scientist at Cevipof, there is in the choice of the speech a “willingness to stage very solemn speech” of the Head of State, “which corresponds to the serious moment” that French political life is going through. It was also an opportunity to teach about the reform one last time, by presenting himself as “the guarantor of the country’s great economic and social interests”, and to explain that he was “forced” to use the tools used by the government “to save our pension system”.
But does the executive measure the risk associated with this speaking out? On March 22, the president had engaged in the game of the interview at 1 p.m., on the eve of a demonstration… which broke a record of participants, to the surprise of the power in place. “He must correct the situation”, affirms Bruno Cautrès, after this interview which had “given the image of a bunkered leader and unable to listen” to his people.
What announcements can we expect?
To get out of it, Emmanuel Macron must show “What conclusions he draws” from this episode “on our democratic model”, estimates Bruno Cautrès. The decision of the Constitutional Council, by validating the reform and by censoring the referendum of shared initiative, however reinforced the legitimacy of the “democratic path” advocated by the government. There is therefore little chance of witnessing a dramatic change such as a dissolution or a referendum.
“He cannot remain politically inert”, judges Bruno Cautrès, but according to him it is difficult to imagine a reshuffle “announced with drums and trumpets” in full speech. The “game of musical chairs” could, however, be “suggested” and take effect in the coming days. In addition, Emmanuel Macron must now chart the course for the rest of the five-year term. On Saturday, government spokesman Olivier Véran hinted that the president was going to “take stock” of the other files of this first year of the five-year term. Open sites, such as immigration or work, could therefore be on the menu.
Does Emmanuel Macron have the elements of communication to overturn public opinion?
“We must start from the deep break between power and part of the country”, analyzes Bruno Cautrès. In the protest against the pension reform, the image of certain members of the government, relatively unknown until now, has been permanently damaged. “It does not recover with announcements”, warns the political scientist, who does not believe in a “wow effect”.
“Political opinions are deeply structured,” he continues. With two social crises on the clock in less than five years, the movement of “yellow vests” and the fight against pension reform, “one-night action is not enough”, according to our expert. The best communication for Emmanuel Macron therefore lies in “the long term” and a questioning of his exercise of power. “It must implement real methods to further connect the political sphere and civil society” in the broad sense, summarizes Bruno Cautrès.
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