2023-04-18 19:15:16
By @amatiz12
Follow the journey through the Ardennes with the most explosive finishing race on the calendar: La Flèche Wallonne. At the same time, a test marked by its conservative style, where everyone will be saved for the battle on the Mur de Huy.
Route
Slightly shorter than the previous edition, 194.3 kilometres, but it retains the same essence: a track designed to last as long as possible until the final wall. It is preceded by 9 levels that will cause fatigue in the legs if they are ascended quickly.
The best point to “anticipate” is in Côte de Cherave (1.3 km at 8.1%), which is crowned just under 6000 meters from the finish line and where a team with more than one trick can well send one of its tokens away to put pressure on others. In addition, this transition is essential to find the perfect placement, so there will be intensity and a fight of trains to position their leaders in the best possible way.
Mur de Huy is an old acquaintance and does not need much explanation. In just 1.3 km, he accumulates ramps of an average of 9.6% that hide sections of up to 17%. It is a cold-blooded game, since many tend to wait until the final 150-200 meters to do the sprint, resisting the temptation to take advantage of the tougher slopes to test from a distance, as Carlos Betancur did in 2013.
This date calls for those two key elements: placement and coolness. Already at the base of the wall, you have to be in the top positions to have a chance of victory, since coming back in full ascent charges a lot of energy that is missing at the end. But it is also essential to be calculating and measure the perfect moment to start, without benefiting your rivals and with the certainty that you have enough strength to resist this high-intensity effort.
Climate
Sunny day, at 13º with a wind that will go in a northeasterly direction, which means that in several sections it will hit the side, but since it is not stronger, it most likely will not have an impact on the development of the race with any fan or similar situation.
favorites
Tadej Pogacar – The top favourite. Devastating throughout the season, always two steps above the rest, it would be a surprise if they don’t win here. But beware, the Arrow has always been elusive, why? He has suffered with the placement and usually enters Huy in a bad position. A mistake that he cannot afford to make and a factor that will be his biggest obstacle, because by force he has no rival here.
David Gaudu – Solid season so far, but with some doubt after leaving Amstel. In condition, the finish suits him well and he is a strong candidate for the podium, even one of those who can make the most opposition to Pogacar.
Enric Mas – For the first time with stripes in the Ardennes, after already going last year in the service of Alejandro Valverde, where he played a notable role providing the best placement for the Murcian already in the middle of Mur de Huy. Seeing the regularity that he has had since the end of 2022 and how he stands out in short efforts -although his sprint is not the best- he is one of the safest bets for the podium.
Michael Woods – With experience and podiums in Flecha, he is also in a position to aim for a drawer of honor. With a little less favoritism than the previous two, but it is well known that a small mistake here could eliminate them, so he will aim for that goal of getting at least 3rd.
Thomas Pidcock – With a form recovered after his fall in Tirreno and an explosiveness that few of those on this startlist enjoy, he will also have that podium in his sights. More evolved and mature, he meets the requirements to shine here.
Alexey Lutsenko- He has raised his level and confidence since Sicily, and the Amstel thing was confirmation that he is walking close to the level he is known for. With Astana in need of results, he is under pressure to replicate those performances and get as high up as possible. A top-5 is feasible for the Kazakh, who has a better chance of showing off as there is not such a strong poster.
Ben Healy – We include him here because he has two top performances in a row, especially the one at Amstel where he was the closest to Pogi. It is unknown how he performs finishing uphill, but Brabanzona and AGR are classics that test their ease in these short efforts and the Irishman, at his young age, shows how to handle them well. If he continues along this line, he has another decent result within reach.
Other outsiders appear on the list, who if they are inspired can bet on a decent result. We’re not including them as “favourites” because they haven’t shown themselves to be at the level of seriousness here or because the explosive ending isn’t the best fit for them: Sergio Higuita, Jai Hindley, Benoit Cosnefroy, Romain Bardet, Mikel Landa, Pello Bilbao, Esteban Chaves, Giulio Ciccone, Andrea Bagioli, Warren Barguil.
Prediction
Hard not to choose someone other than Tadej Pogacar. If the Slovenian has shown anything, it is that he is one of those who immediately corrects his mistakes. He is clear that his placement has condemned him in Flecha and that is why he will prioritize, together with his team, being as far forward as possible in Huy, and I personally believe that this will be the case. And we already know that he, well placed, will liquidate the rest of the competition.
Alejandro Matiz
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