Parruti: the penalty in May will give us a safe summer – Pescara

PESCARA. Abruzzo is at the litmus test. Today we enter the decisive month. “If we want to have a quiet summer and reopen to tourists, we must keep the local circulation of the virus low in May,” says the expert Giustino Parruti, which looks in perspective and indicates in the month of July the possible date to see Abruzzo in zero cases.
But the present is now, the real game against Covid is being played this month. On the one hand the reopening, on the other vaccination: two lines that run parallel in May, with the unknown of variants in the center. “And with a segment of the population, between 30 and 55 years old, who will not be vaccinated this month”, warns Parruti, “and therefore may be susceptible to developing the disease and giving a new impulse to the circulation of the virus”.
A CRUCIAL MONTH. So what can we expect in May? “It’s the litmus test to have a quieter summer,” replies Parruti, director of Infectious Diseases of Pescara, for more than a year at the forefront of the fight against Covid. «The message to be given to the people of Abruzzo is simple: if we maintain responsible and attentive behavior in the month of May, we lay the foundations for a real and greater rest and for a resumption of economic growth in July and August. All the areas that will have a low circulation of the virus now, in the summer months will be able to more easily take the risk of some major reopening, for example by hosting tourists again, which is the most interesting aspect for the economy “.
«If we, however, arrived in summer with a greater local circulation of the virus», Parruti warns, «first of all, tourists would not come. Furthermore, if the endogenous cases were added to the cases of importation, we would have much more difficulty in tracing them. For example: if I have a territory with viral circulation close to zero and, of 100 tourists entering, 3 or 5 infect someone, I can immediately trace and block the chain without having outbreaks. If, on the other hand, the circulation of the local virus were to increase before having to deal with the import one, it would be a problem ».
ZERO CASES IN JULY. Last year, Abruzzo reached zero cases at the end of May. Now, according to Parruti, we will have to wait at least until July to have an Abruzzo Covid free.
“The situation last year was completely different”, explains the infectious disease specialist, “because we reopened in May after 8 weeks of lockdown hard in a context of generalized closure throughout Europe that had blocked the circulation of the virus. The number of new cases had dropped so much that there was not even a selection of further variants. Then, unfortunately, our tourists re-imported the virus from outside, drawing heavily from the outbreaks in Croatia, France and Spain. At that time, despite the absence of vaccination coverage, there had been a repeal of the local circulation of the virus such that it was reasonable to expect that, until a new re-import of a high-caliber replicative virus, we would have no problems. The current situation, on the other hand, is different, ”says Parruti. “We have a very sharp reduction of the virus and a well-traced territory, so the number of new cases is low and all are traced within 24 hours. There is a situation of perfect efficiency, however, the virus is there and the English variant is dangerous. If everything goes in the right direction, if we avoid that the lack of vaccination coverage of a large segment of the population translates into a resumption of circulation, I think that in July we will be able to reach zero cases ».
THE VACCINES. Almost one in ten Abruzzese was vaccinated with the first and second dose.
But there is a large segment of the population, between 30 and 55, which is not yet covered. «At the end of May we should vaccinate all the over 70s, a good range of the over 60s and fragile patients. The problem is that in the month of May, and in the first 15 days of June, we will still have an uncovered band, the one between 30 and 55 years, which during this wave has given us the majority of cases with the English variant. We must therefore prevent, with the normal techniques of control, i.e. spacing, hand washing and use of the mask, that there is a restart of the disease in that unvaccinated group which in any case, although not at high risk of developing disease, remains at risk and it would be a pity if it gave rise to a resumption of the care burden ».
THE REOPENINGS. According to Parruti, “May will be a transitional month in which we migrate from a phase of low vaccination coverage to a situation with high vaccination coverage. Pescara and all of Abruzzo could be the first in Italy to reach optimal coverage with vaccines because we are doing very well ».
On the reopenings, the expert’s thinking is clear. «This is a time of great gambling. On the one hand, we must enjoy the reopenings to have some more social space. I am convinced, for example, that a well-managed and not crowded gym can be attended very well, or that outdoor dinners can be enjoyed. On the contrary, we must remember that we cannot have parties because we absolutely cannot minimize the risk of the presence of the virus, especially in light of the new variants that slightly reduce the coverage power of the vaccine on the transmission of the disease », concludes Parruti.