It is not pleasant to stick a pin in an inflated balloon, even more unpleasant to do so when the balloon is really big and the boom is louder. But this is what must be done as the balloon of the political situation in Judea and Samaria continues to flutter in the air and is not affected by any prevailing spirit of facts and reality.
The right-left discourse returned this week in a big way and took over the headlines and agenda again. It began with Trump interviews that were exposed and continued with the insane campaign of the minister in charge of Israel’s internal security, who publicly caught a progressive ultra-left line and managed to upset millions of concerned Israelis.
In the meantime, the Iranian threat and the talks in Vienna have re-ignited the question of Israel’s readiness for such a situation, diplomatic and military. On this subject there really is potential for substantial development, but in the rest of the subjects, the huge headlines only emphasized the intensity of the stagnation and the fixed state that nothing would change it.
This week opens with the headlines that broke out of journalist Barak Ravid’s new book, “Trump’s Peace.” Ravid is one of the most talented political reporters in Israel and his sources are deeply rooted in the White House. For the purpose of writing the book he managed to have two lengthy interviews with former President Donald Trump, which were as they say – a bit unconventional, like the man himself.
It is not difficult to remember the warm friendship that existed between Trump and Netanyahu and the huge differences between his meetings with Netanyahu and his cold and official meetings with Abu Mazen. Trump as a good businessman knew exactly where the butter was smeared and who the strong side was in the Middle East, and acted accordingly.
Suddenly today Trump is playing other songs and without any shame he hangs it on only one explanation: Bibi did not wait long enough before calling to congratulate Biden. He saw this as a personal injury so he claimed he had not spoken to him since, angrily to the world. But this is not the only headline he provided in his remarks, the former president claimed that Netanyahu in fact did not want any peace agreement and did not intend to reach any agreement with the Palestinians, everything was just from the language and pressure.
Trump also said that Netanyahu wanted to declare full sovereignty in Judea and Samaria, but he was the one who prevented him from doing so. “I was angry and stopped it because it had already gone too far. “When he did, ‘Let’s attach everything and build on it,’ and we were not happy about that,” Trump said. And how do you say that?
These headlines achieved the desired effect and gave Netanyahu the best information campaign he could have dreamed of. Trump who sought to overthrow him knowingly or unknowingly gave him the great achievement. Netanyahu’s supporters immediately said: Here, we told you. Netanyahu will never sign a Palestinian state, Netanyahu wanted to apply full sovereignty, Netanyahu is the one who knows how to be strong and maintain the right-wing interest in front of any American administration, more friendly and less friendly.
There was also some embarrassment among the settlement leaders, who were accused of allegedly fighting Netanyahu at the time, and it turns out that he was the one who guarded them. The silence that arose from there this week was quite thunderous but was soon swallowed up by the noise of the Iranian and political issue.
On the other hand, Netanyahu’s opponents made exactly the same use of the headlines, claiming that it turned out that he was so unsuccessful that even Trump was already changing his mind about him, even the most friendly president he managed to upset. Again a world as it is customary and no title will make anyone convinced. Trump’s interviews convinced the convinced and made everyone even more entrenched in their positions, not that this will change the voting map in the country.
What has been is what will be
These headlines are a delight to every journalist and every media outlet, perhaps even to the six esteemed readers. But after asking for your forgiveness, we will briefly delve into our media role and bore you with a few details, a little more facts and reality and less pompous headlines.
It’s time to go back two years to the same period last year, the beginning of winter 2003, the last moments of the planet’s sanity before being exposed to the new word Corona. Netanyahu travels to the US to thwart a meeting that was supposed to take place between President Trump This week in interviews “General” and much to sail in his praise.
Netanyahu and Trump convene a dramatic press conference and present the map of the “deal of the century,” the same political deal that was brewed in the White House for future negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians. In the same breath, Netanyahu declares full sovereignty over all of Judea and Samaria “as early as this coming Sunday,” a statement that is hysterically deleted after a minute and a half.
The map of the century deal is published and then it turns out that this is in fact the same permanent political plan formulated by every administration in Washington, except for one significant difference, that Trump does not pressure the parties to sit at the table but says that if the Palestinians refuse, he will treat them with his tools.
The heads of the Judea and Samaria authorities go into hysteria. The map that was published is full of huge green spots, which indicate exactly where the Palestinian state Aliba Trump, David Friedman and Jared Kushner is supposed to be. This map is not fundamentally different from the Oslo Accords. Urgent and an information campaign in an attempt to thwart the evil of the decree. The dramatic and loud statements in the White House worry them, the feeling is that something really big is about to happen and they realize it’s time to act.
A few days pass and the truth begins to become clear again, and it was brought even then in detail and in detail, among other things, over this modest stage. Those who really set the policy on the subject are professionals in the political arena of the White House and therefore the plan itself is not fundamentally different, the difference is only in approach and practice. A Palestinian state will not be established so quickly because the Palestinians just do not want to. What did not happen thirty years ago will not suddenly happen today.
And above all: applying sovereignty will not happen either, the United States never allowed it and it will not allow it any further. Trump knew this in advance and Netanyahu knew this in advance. Trump, who knew how to recognize the Golan and move the embassy to Jerusalem, could just as easily Also allow for the application of sovereignty in Judea and Samaria and if he has not done so, that already says it all.
Moreover: on a practical level, the application of sovereignty does not mean too much. Israeli law could not be enforced on any Arab in Judea and Samaria, whether he holds a blue identity card or a Palestinian ID, most of Judea and Samaria is supposed to be a Palestinian state and the only difference could be that residents of Modi’in Illit and Beitar Illit would register their apartments In the Tabu and not in the Civil Administration.
The application of sovereignty is essentially declaratory only. The defense establishment has no ability to control or enforce the law on Judea and Samaria Arabs, even today, for example, the traffic reports they receive are not worth the paper they are written on and Arab drivers travel there in life-threatening wildness without being able to control it and this is just one example. Israel would have declared sovereignty it would have been expressed only in a declaration, which would mean first an escalation and a terrorist uprising and then an impact on all plans for the establishment of a Palestinian state that are in the minds of Americans and Europeans.
The United States and of course Europe will never let that happen and this has always been understood by the professionals in Israel’s defense and intelligence system. The senior commanders in the field have always said and still say today: This twice cynically as a key election promise and it did not stop him from announcing it in the White House, knowing that the brakes from the administration would arrive in a moment.
So what did we actually have here? Trump and Netanyahu presented the same political plan for the Oslo Accords, they gave it a different name from the world of business and deals to cover up the fact that they both know it will never take place. Netanyahu declared sovereignty he knew he could not carry out, so that Trump would be the bad guy who would stop it and he could say: I wanted to, but they did not let me.
Today it is already very convenient for Trump to throw the blame on Netanyahu and ignore the fact that he himself has heard from his professionals that the deal of the century will not happen so quickly. These interviews have repeatedly proved to those who are not yet convinced: it is not really possible to start a political process with the Palestinians, it is not really possible to change the political status quo in Judea and Samaria. Which was in the statements he made for political purposes.There is no need to get excited by the titles the new book has provided.
Back wind to Bar Lev
And back to the present. Trump is no longer president, he is disappointed with Netanyahu who is no longer prime minister and has not provided him with the success he wished for, but Israel and the Palestinians have gone nowhere. Today there is another administration in the White House made up of Obama’s people and there is one word that must not be mentioned and must not be uttered: Netanyahu.
The current administration sees Netanyahu as a red sheet, they throw all their frustration with Trump on Netanyahu and whatever he says they will do the opposite regardless of what they themselves want or think. If, for example, Netanyahu suddenly declares that it is time for a Palestinian state and a withdrawal to the 48 borders, it will cause Baidan and his people to do so and apply Israeli and Jewish sovereignty from the Mediterranean to Jordan, from Mount Hermon to the Red Sea, including the Gaza Strip.
This administration is trying to somehow deal with the new government in Israel, which is also trying to study the situation and understand it. Bennett made a great effort to get a meeting with Biden, four months ago it took place and provided quite a few embarrassing sensations, with the meeting itself being postponed because of an American entanglement with casualties in Afghanistan and then with embarrassing pictures in which Biden seemed to fall asleep while Bennett spoke.
It can already be said today that Bennett tried to place the Iranian issue at the center of the meeting, ahead of the renewed talks in Vienna, but Biden’s thoughts wandered in a completely different direction. He asked Bennett if he intended to promote Jewish construction in Judea and Samaria and Bennett replied in the affirmative. Biden said he at least appreciated the sincerity and ended the meeting politely. Since then, the two have not exchanged a word.
About two weeks ago, at the height of tensions over the Iranian issue and the height of the crisis in the nuclear talks in Vienna, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken called the Prime Minister’s Office in Jerusalem and asked to speak with the Prime Minister. But Blinken had one question: Mr. Bennett, is it true what we heard, that you intend to build nine thousand new apartments in Atarot?
Bennett stammered for a moment and replied in the affirmative.
We do not know the continuation of the conversation exactly, but what has happened since is that the programs there have stopped. What has also happened is that since then Linken has not spoken to Bennett again. The White House has completed its initial mapping and made the mule and governor: it conducts itself primarily against Ganz and Lapid and less vis-à-vis Bennett, also where they realized he was less relevant and his partners are the ones who better represent the character of the government.
This means that in the Iranian arena, there is indeed a uniform and clear Israeli line against the agreement and the difference between Bennett and Ganz is mainly in the media approach to it. The message from Israel to the United States is uniform and clear. On the other hand, the Americans do not show much interest in the Iranian issue and are much more interested in the situation vis-à-vis the Palestinians, and this is where the differences between Bennett’s and Gantz and Lapid’s approaches.
But here, too, one must reassure and clarify: nothing essential is going to change. For example, the plan to build Atarot is not new, it has been on the table for several years but is not progressing due to American pressure, like many other construction plans in Judea and Samaria that the previous governments did not like and therefore the Netanyahu governments did not promote.
The construction in Atarot is intended mainly for the ultra-Orthodox public, nine thousand apartments are to be built there, so Bennett and Shaked have decided to save what is possible from their lost dignity in the right-wing base and advance the plans one step further. Very quickly they received the brakes and in order to get off the tree with dignity they submitted the plans for inspection to the Ministry of the Environment, which is in the hands of Tamar Zandberg from Meretz, who is supposed to formally carry out some environmental tests so that the plans can be approved. But the future of the plans is not in doubt. And yet, it is difficult to blame the Biden administration for this situation because it was the same situation in previous administrations.
The local authorities in Judea and Samaria are also in a kind of embarrassment like the general situation of religious Zionism. The vast majority feel betrayed by Bennett and Shaked who joined terrorist supporters, but even there it is not absolute. Take for example the Jordan Valley Regional Council. Despite everything, in front of the Hebron Regional Council, which is considered very much identified with Smutrich and Ben Gvir, with the Samaria and Benjamin Regional Councils in the middle, which are controlled by Likud members who were criticized this week for their conduct against Netanyahu in light of what Trump has revealed.
In the end, the main differences between the Netanyahu era and the Bennett era are mainly in the discourse and the general wind that blows. Only under the auspices of such a government can Internal Security Minister Omar Bar-Lev, who is responsible for the safety and security of Israeli citizens, ignore the growing terrorism in Hamas-sponsored Judea and Samaria and focus on “settler violence” which is a negligible percentage of murderous Palestinian terrorism.
Bar-Lev in his statements gives a boost to terrorism and the boycott movements against Israel and this is a serious incident that must not be treated with equanimity. But politically, neither Biden nor his partners Ganz and Lapid will be able to change what has not changed here in thirty years. A Palestinian state will not be established even though they very much want to, and the application of sovereignty will not occur but not because they are the ones who do not want it.
In the last week, the discourse between right and left has re-entered our lives after these concepts have been somewhat blurred and even disappeared for several years. But after all it is about inflating the same balloon. The complicated situation in our regional jungle cannot be resolved so quickly, the only hope and prayer is that the situation will remain as it is now and will not get worse.
The column was published in the “Peg of the Week” supplement from Yated Ne’eman