Cases are growing exponentially, but are monitored above all thanks to the capacity of sequencing. In Italy there are officially 27, but it is important to push on third doses and not to underestimate the transmissibility of the variant
The prevalence of the Omicron variant it is increasing very rapidly in various countries around the world, also thanks to what appears to be a significant ability to infect people previously infected or vaccinated. There transmissibility of Omicron seems remarkable and greater than that of the Delta variant, even if it is not known exactly how much, because the monitoring of cases largely left to the potential that each country has to sequence the positives to confirm the strain from which they were infected (especially where the Delta variant is still dominant).
Few official cases in Europe
As of December 13, there are officially 3,962 Omicron cases reported so far by 23 countries of the European Union / European Economic Area confirmed, including 27 from Italy. The cases for must always be confirmed by genomic investigations and therefore the painting that we have in front of us partial.
For this reason, due to the great sequencing capacity they have developed, the eyes are focused (in Europe) on the performance of Omicron in two countries: UK and Denmark, because they usually first intercept how a certain variant behaves and because they are often anticipators of what could happen (with all the relevant variables) to us too. In recent days, Denmark has sequenced about 50% of the cases.
In London, Omicron accounts for 40% of cases
Just yesterday the UK raised the Covid alert level from 3 to 4 in light of the rapid increase in cases of the Omicron variant, which are doubled in 24 hours. In all, there were 1,576 on Monday. The positives in general in the UK are returning to the peak levels of the January pandemic. Scotland and England are growing faster. In Scotland, Omicron could represent 90% of cases in about 7 days (data from the local government report) and according to some analyzes Scotland could be about 1 week ahead of England in terms of Omicron transmission. Also London is growing faster than other areas: it is estimated that approx 40% of the new Covid infections recorded is caused by the Omicron variant, as confirmed by the British health minister, Sajid Javid. The increase is most marked between the ages of 5-14, but recently also from the age of 20 and up. Hospitalizations are increasing in England (not in other areas) led by the 18-64 age group.
Bleak forecasts and first death in the UK
The latest report from the British Health Agency UKHSA confirms that Omicron doubles every 2-3 days in the UK and has a large growth advantage over Delta. Omicron accounted for nearly 10% of cases last Wednesday. The graph above indicates the possibility of 1 million cases a day for Christmas. Britain has consequently raised its alert level in the fight against the coronavirus, bringing it to grade 4 (out of 5). Boris Johnson has launched the Omicron Emergency Booster National Mission: a national mission to offer all the British who want it the third dose before the end of the year. In fact, with Omicron, according to the first data on vaccination efficacy (towards symptomatic infection), the two doses are no longer enough (we talked about it
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). The concern about the health of the health system because, even if we do not know if Omicron is worse than Delta (and, at least for South Africa, it would seem not), in the UK there were the first hospitalizations and the first death caused by the new variant. Hospitalizations and deaths due to the Omicron variant of Covid will increase dramatically in the UK in the coming days. This was stated by the British Minister of Health, Sajid Javid. With Delta it was seen that a more transmissible variant, however, involves an increased number of hospitalizations, regardless of the aggressiveness of the virus.
In Denmark prevalent within the week
A exponential growth of cases it is also recorded in Denmark, where about 12% of Omicron cases. Experts estimate more than double the current cases within a few days. It is thought that the variant will reach 50% prevalence by this week and 97% by Christmas. Omicron will become the dominant variant in Copenhagen this week with over 10,000 cases predicted per day, the most since the start of the pandemic.
Trevor Bedford, scientist at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center of Seattle, developed a mathematical model to calculate Omicron’s RT in four countries. The model calculates the RT at 3.1 for Germany, 3.0 for the United States and 4.8 for the United Kingdom with doubling times (as of December 1) of 3.7 days, 3.7 days, respectively. and 2.5 days. The British Health Agency estimates an Rt of 3.7.
Comparisons and the situation in Italy
In South Africa, however, the cases are decreasing: for the second consecutive day, December 12, in Gauteng (the most affected province) there was a reversal of the trend even if the cases are still growing. Hospitalizations are also on the rise (61% more from one week to the next), but have not reached the levels of previous waves, as well as deaths. South Africa is an example to watch with interest, because all cases are currently Omicron, but others peculiarities (average age, vaccination rate, prevalence of recovered from previous waves) make comparisons and predictions impossible.
Similarly, the data from Great Britain and Denmark must be taken with a grain of salt: they must serve as a warning, but the restrictions present (lower than in Italy) and the differently stratified vaccination rate make for at least risky punctual forecasts.
Probably Omicron is more present in Italy than the 27 officially ascertained cases (Italy sequences about 10% of the total cases): what must guide thealert to a probable increase positives and attention to vaccinations, including primarily the third doses, which with Omicron are fundamental and which have now reached 19.5% of the interested parties in Italy (35% in the UK).
December 13, 2021 (change December 16, 2021 | 18:57)
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