2023-04-23 10:34:12
Ukraine has been preparing for several weeks a counteroffensive to recover the territories which have come under Russian control. Announced for the spring, it will be supported by military equipment sent by the West. But Kyiv will have to step up their attacks to get convincing results. Although it is not clear where or when its counter-offensive will take place, Ukraine plans to retake its eastern territories and has its eye on Crimea. Under the auspices of Ramstein Contact Group, Ukraine has received several deliveries of Western military hardware in recent days and has no qualms about announcing them. But the supply of the first heavy armored vehicles by the US, UK, Germany and Spain will not be enough for a great victory.
The Ukrainians are forced to carry out major offensives, they cannot afford to wage methodical, biting warfare as the Russians do. Kyiv has to get big wins and as quickly as possible, to liberate the greatest amount of occupied territory and, at the same time, damage the Russian Army as much as possible. For this, the Ukrainian Army must break the front line, dislocate the Russian devices. It needs victories like the ones last September in the Kharkiv province or in Kherson. Now the Ukrainians have to get to Melitopol (Zaporizhia) and Starobilsk (Lugansk), and do a lot of damage to the opponent. For this, a great concentration of resources is needed, of forces in a specific area. At some point they will be stopped, and then they will have to reinforce their attacks again to achieve three or four victories. A single offensive will not be enough to achieve the strategic goal of liberating all territories under Russian control, including Crimea.
The equipment provided by the West –tanks, combat and infantry vehicles, mobile artillery, etc.– allows Kyiv to build coherent and solid fighting units that will end up spearheading the offensive. However, this will not be enough to achieve a great victory. Kyiv is not content with this and is also building other forces, taking into account that the Russian defensive line may now be stronger than last September.
In addition to the number of soldiers, the qualitative aspect is also important to carry out offensive operations: it is complicated, you have to coordinate a lot of resources, you need various skills, personnel… Do the Ukrainians have the ability to reach this level of skills? and knowledge? This is a real question.
In case of a Ukrainian offensive, there are two possible options. Or it fails, and then we get into a situation where the Ukrainians are unable to break through the front line, which leads to a frozen situation on the ground. Either Kyiv succeeds, and this causes instability in the war, see Putin’s regime. In the event of victory in the Zaporizhia or Luhansk regions, Russia cannot remain without reacting, especially since it will begin to move closer to politically sensitive areas: the breakaway republics of Donbas and Crimea. The Ukrainian offensive can only trigger Russian reactions that outweigh Kyiv’s possible victories on the ground.
In this sense, the heads of G-7 diplomacy have issued a severe warning to countries that provide aid to Russia in Ukraine, also presenting a united front against China, whose maritime militarization activities they condemned. The major industrialized countries have vowed to exact a heavy price from countries that aid Russia in its war against Ukraine. They also pledged to further intensifying sanctions against Russia and redouble their efforts to prevent third countries from circumventing them. They also found Russia’s “irresponsible nuclear rhetoric” and its threat to deploy weapons in Belarus unacceptable.
Yet the warning not to support Russia in Ukraine, let alone China, echoes repeated warnings by Western officials in Beijing against supplying Russia with weapons. On the other hand, why are several Ukrainian offensives necessary? There is the scenario of a Ukrainian advance into the Zaporizhia province that would lead to a Russian debacle and the collapse of all of Ukraine. With a stroke of the pen, it would be much easier militarily for the Ukrainians, and victory would be possible even for the republics of Donbas and Crimea. Now this scenario is unlikely.
The Ukrainian offensive will stop after a while. You cannot advance along the front line for hundreds of kilometers. Last September the Ukrainians retook Kharkiv, but the Russians were able to stop them at Lugansk. The Ukrainian Army is likely to have successes, but they will not be strategic in the sense that they will take everything back. So it will have to redouble its attacks, but the Russians still have resources, not to mention nuclear intimidation. There is always the risk of something happening between Ramstein and… Beijing.
#victories #Kharkiv #Jerson