2023-04-23 13:18:47
According to a report by the US Think Tanks Institute for the Study of War, Ukrainian forces have taken positions on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
A Ukrainian soldier surveys a former Russian trench in Kherson Oblast near the front line.ZUMA Press Wire
Russian milbloggers have provided enough geolocated footage and textual reports that Ukrainian forces took up positions on April 22 on the eastern, i.e. left, bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast. That’s according to a report on the website of the US Think Tanks Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which has provided research and analysis on defense and foreign policy issues since 2007. Although, according to the Milblogger report, it is not clear to what extent or with what intentions the Ukrainian military took up these positions, the question is whether this is part of the preparations for the long-awaited Ukrainian offensive. According to an analysis published by Euronews, to which several military experts contributed, an offensive in Kherson Oblast could be the shortest route to Crimea for Ukrainian troops. Milbloggers are bloggers who report on wars, which can also be eyewitnesses or soldiers.
Geolocated footage released by a Russian milblogger on April 22 shows Ukrainian forces having established positions on the banks of the Dnipro north of Oleshky, seven kilometers southwest of the city of Kherson, and advancing west of Dachi, ten kilometers south of Kherson. The footage also suggests that Russian forces may not be controlling islands in the Kinka and Chaika rivers less than half a kilometer north of geolocated Ukrainian positions near the Antonivsky Bridge, the report says.
Russian milbloggers claim April 20-22, according to the ISW report, that Ukrainian forces have held positions on the east bank of Kherson Oblast for weeks, have established stable supply lines to these positions, and are regularly conducting operations in the area – all evidence of a missing Russian one control of the territory. Another milblogger’s battle map claimed that as of April 22, Russian forces failed to control some islands in the Dnipro River delta southwest of the city of Kherson, suggesting possible Ukrainian advances on those islands.
The ISW only now classifies the east bank of the Dnipro as Ukrainian occupied
Russian forces may focus primarily on maintaining defenses in urban areas such as Oleshky and Nova Kakhovka, leaving the islands in the Dnipro River delta unoccupied. The extent and intentions of these Ukrainian movements remain unclear, as does Ukraine’s ability and willingness to sustainably hold its positions in the area. The ISW is only now classifying the area on the east bank of the Dnipro as Ukrainian-held, having observed for the first time reliable geolocated imagery of Ukrainian positions on the east bank along with Russian reports of a permanent Ukrainian presence there.
The ISW report also said that Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin may be trying to persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin to go on the defensive ahead of a possible Ukrainian counter-offensive. Prigozhin declared on April 21 that Russia must anchor itself in such a way that only the “claws of the enemy” would be able to pull Russian forces out of their positions. Prigozhin, following a discussion, commented on the outcome of the Ramstein meeting, the West’s commitment to train more Ukrainian personnel and continued military support to Ukraine. Prigozhin also indicated that Ukraine will try to “tear apart” Russian forces and that Russia must defend itself against such attacks. Prigozhin has recently become increasingly alarmist and made similar statements about the uncertain future of Russian offensive operations in Donbass, the IWS report said.
Russian military leaders are likely trying to persuade Putin to turn to defensive operations, according to ISW, but may not be able to bluntly convey that message to him. Some ultra-nationalist figures have claimed that Russia’s Defense Ministry has signaled that it is scrambling to recruit 400,000 mercenaries to ensure Russia has enough military personnel to defend existing front lines and effectively freeze current front lines in Ukraine. The Russian military leadership is also reportedly moving conscripts to hold Russian lines in Crimea and may be planning to tap into other resources to ensure Russia can maintain some front lines once the potential Ukrainian counter-offensive reaches its peak.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov are reportedly likely aware of the threat posed by Ukraine’s counteroffensive, but at Putin’s urging continue to send mercenaries to reinforce offensive operations that the ISW calls pointless.
#Ukrainian #counteroffensive #coming