2023-04-24 19:48:11
In 2022, more than two billion euros were spent on the Defense sector in the world, reveals this Monday, April 24, the latest report by the International Institute for Peace Studies in Stockholm. The biggest increase in military spending was seen in Central and Western Europe (+13%) to a total of €313 billion. This is the biggest rise since the end of the Cold War and which, in the opinion of the Portuguese historian, José Pacheco Pereira, is due to the Russian military invasion of Ukraine.
How do you read the conclusions of the latest report by the Stockholm International Institute for Peace Studies?
For several years now, the world has been in a situation of worsening international relations and, evidently, the invasion of Ukraine led to a kind of paroxysm, creating a situation that is not yet one of world war, but which includes the risk of a more widespread. If we look at the Russian statements, we can even think of an eventual nuclear war. I think that [as declarações] are not to be taken seriously, the Russians have rationality, even in spite of what they have done. Everyone knows that a nuclear war has no winners.
Now, from the point of view of conventional weapons, investment in research or the development of new weapons, this is what is happening and will continue. Therefore, I am not at all surprised by this type of conclusion. We are, since the 2nd World War, in a more dangerous moment.
Doesn’t the fact that we have the United States, China and Russia leading the list of countries that invest most in military weapons show an imbalance?
This imbalance has existed since World War II. US weaponry is, in general, more expensive, sophisticated and involves -whether from the point of view of aviation, drones, navy, ground troops, special forces- a higher investment. There is in fact an increase in these expenses, but, strictly speaking, it is just an increase in a trend that is already previous. However, it is interesting to highlight the fact that Russia has been overtaken by China. China is, from a confrontational point of view, the [país] more dangerous for the United States.
In Ukraine, military expenditure amounted to 40,000 million euros, which means an increase of 640%. Did the Russian invasion of Ukraine have an immediate impact on military spending decisions in Central and Western Europe?
Without a doubt. It’s just the beginning and it’s going to be even more serious. Europe has always lived under the umbrella of the United States. The bulk of military expenditure to defend Europe, in terms of NATO and bilateral relations, was carried out by the USA. This situation had already provoked a conflict, manifested during Obama’s time and worsened with Trump, on the need for Europeans to play a greater role in military spending. But right now, everyone is going to spend a lot from a military point of view. They will arm themselves “to the teeth”.
Who has more economic possibilities and has established armaments industries, as is the case of France, Germany and the United Kingdom. These countries will have an exponential increase in expenses in the area of defense, an inevitable consequence of our being in a unique military situation, since 1945, and which was triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Do you consider that the European Union has recently broken the taboo of common European defence? An idea ideally defended by France…
Of course, France has military industries and needed to have a market for its weaponry. Incidentally, the bulk of this effort by France came to modernize the European arsenal. I admit that there will not be, in the short term, a reinforcement of the European part of the defense mechanisms. There will be a reinforcement of NATO. The fact that Sweden and Finland, Finland already joined, have joined NATO, countries that were neutral, is a change that represents a sense of risk that has not existed since 1945.
Can we say that we live in a more insecure world?
For sure. More insecure, more dangerous and more unstable from a social and economic point of view.
This study reveals that the African continent spent around €38 billion on the Defense sector, 5.3% less than in 2021. Something unprecedented in the last four years. Is this good news or is it something that can be explained by the fact that many African countries’ budgets are dependent on international aid and since, at the moment, there is a conflict in Europe, Africa is no longer a priority?
It’s the two factors, especially the last one. But that too will change. See that the role of the Russian Wagner group in Africa has begun to be discussed and the incidents that are taking place in Sudan are going to bring about changes. The arms race will take place practically on all continents -with the exception of South America- translating into a much riskier strategic situation worldwide.
This arms race is considered the biggest rise in the last 30 years, since the end of the Cold War. Does this study leave in the air the specter that world peace should not improve in the near future?
Have no doubt that it won’t get any better. Take the case of the conflict in Ukraine: from the moment that Russia annexed parts of Ukraine and had its Parliament approve, Duma – something very fictitious – the annexation of a part of Ukraine, it is no longer just Crimea, the conflict it no longer has an easy resolution, much less a peaceful one.
Ukraine cannot accept the occupation of its territory and Russia, if it backs down from these annexations, admits that it has lost the war. It will be very difficult to resolve this conflict.
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