2023-04-26 01:08:04
At the end of winter, the volume of natural gas reserves existing in storage facilities in the Member States of the European Union was greater than 50% of the total capacity, when in previous years the comparable quantity would have been around 20%. Existing plans suggest that it will be possible to reach the target of 90% at the beginning of next winter, even considering the reduction in purchases from Russia.
It is true that part of this result was achieved because the climate was milder than usual for the time of year. But it must be recognized that the policies to reduce consumption by around 15% also had a positive impact. And it was also clear that the Union’s initiatives to seek alternative suppliers were successful, given that the proportion of natural gas purchased from Russia dropped from more than 50% in January 2021 to around 13% in November 2022.
It was not easy to reach these results. The preferred way of transporting natural gas is by pipeline, which restricts the options regarding the origin to those regions that can supply in this way, as they do not require long ocean crossings. This was the main reason Europe became dependent on Russian natural gas.
However, it is possible to overcome this physical constraint by importing liquefied natural gas, despite being a technologically demanding and more expensive option. That is why the construction of regasification terminals that would allow this product to be received from other origins, such as Qatar, Nigeria or the USA, was never seen as a priority in economic terms, although from a strategic point of view the fragility of the situation was already well known. .
But better late than never. Europe has begun an effort to manage to diversify the origin of the natural gas it needs, in a process of aggressive search for new suppliers and investments to be able to receive these supplies. Evidently, this effort caused natural gas prices to rise in international markets, as competition increased.
But as world production and consumption of energy products are relatively inelastic, this effect tends to attenuate as markets readjust and Russia finds other customers, especially China and India, whose economies have the size to absorb the quantities in question, replacing their traditional suppliers.
And here we have another interesting phenomenon. The circumstances created by the war in Ukraine, which in Asia, Africa and Latin America is seen as a strictly European (or “Western”) problem, are being used by a more or less extended group of countries to prepare a fundamental change of the essential framework that has regulated the World Order in recent decades.
From a Eurocentric perspective, the absorption of Ukraine by Russia is contrary to the interests of Europe and, by extension, of NATO and other countries that are part of this geostrategic bloc or are aligned with it, because it would be a first step in a gradual process of Russian expansion. Hence Europe and its allies have done everything in their power to provide Ukraine with the means it needs to defend itself against invasion – but only that, given that it is unthinkable that the West and Russia would become involved in a conflict direct military.
Now, this has two consequences.
On the one hand, it is becoming clear that it is essential for Europe to strengthen its economic and political cooperation and integration frameworks, despite nationalist pressures, because alone or in regional groups these countries will not be able to remain independent in the long term. term. But not only. Considering the experience gained from the presidency of Donald Trump, and some statements by Republican Party officials who seem to doubt that the defense of Ukraine is relevant to American interests, confidence in the firm support of the USA is shaken, as recognized by Emmanuel Macron and Ursula von der Leyen.
On the other hand, China, India and other countries, such as Brazil, are trying to seize the moment to reaffirm their claims to be recognized as relevant decision makers on the international stage at a global level. President Lula da Silva’s statements about the reciprocal responsibilities of Russia, the USA and the European Union in maintaining the situation in Ukraine, as well as President Xi Jinping’s position regarding the possibility of China being a mediator in this conflict are, in in my opinion, manifestations of these claims, and foreshadow the outline of a new institutional framework for international relations and security, in a multipolar version that will reflect this new type of balance.
The author writes according to the old spelling.
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