2023-04-29 01:12:14
From the best Indian Punchline. a reflection on the latest events in Ukraine, as well as on the preparations for the famous counter-offensive:
The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, went to the “new territories” of the country, between the regions of Lugansk and Kherson/Zaporozhye, to assess the military situation in the area. This comes at a time when Ukraine is preparing a counteroffensive against Russia, supported by the arrival of the Patriot missile system, which demonstrates the extent of the mobilization the country is implementing to impose heavy losses on Russia.
This key moment, however, was not preceded by a period of great stability. In fact, recently documents from the Pentagon have been leaked to the press revealing the skeptical attitude of the United States regarding the Ukrainian counter-offensive, but also Moscow’s opinion on the subject. In particular, Russia argues that the neocons will not pull the plug on Zelensky’s regime, since ending the war would mean opening Pandora’s box when President Biden is about to announce his bid for a second term as president. As a result, Ukraine appears in a period of hemorrhage, because Russia has dominance in several areas! It has missile, manpower, air and artillery superiority, as well as a well-formed fortification line.
The war between Russia and Ukraine appears to be at an impasse, but the clincher is which side is inflicting the most casualties. According to the Russian ambassador to the UK, the casualty ratio in attrition warfare is about seven Ukrainian soldiers for every Russian soldier. While, Western media estimates that around 35,000 Ukrainian soldiers will be involved in the upcoming counter-offensive along the 950km front line, while Putin has recorded that Russian frontline reserve forces number 160,000 soldiers!
The situation of the Ukrainian air defense system is critical, and the Russians have heavily fortified the front line with multiple layers of defense such as mines, embankments and bollards to impede the advance of tanks. Ukraine has lost most of its most experienced soldiers (about 120,000 casualties) and is now facing one of the major war powers in the world, Russia.
In the midst of all this, Putin made an official visit to the areas where the Ukrainian counter-offensive is most likely to take place. The objective was to hear directly from the commanders the military situation and to obtain input for its decisions on Russian counter-strategies, both defensive and offensive.
However, despite the leaks from the Pentagon and the resulting disorder and confusion in Washington and European capitals (and Kiev), it seems that the counterattack is going smoothly to recapture at least some of the lost territory. However, delusional thinking still prevails in Washington. In a recent article in Foreign Affairs, written by two veterans of the US establishment – former State Department official Richard Haass and Charles Kupchan, senior member of the Council on Foreign Relations – called “The West Needs a New Strategy in Ukraine: A plan to move from the battlefield to the negotiating table”, the myths generated by the neocons are examined. For example, that Russia’s special military operations have failed and that the war “still turned out to be better for Ukraine than expected.” But the thought of the authors is only partially correct, because Ukraine’s offensive could perhaps end with a negotiated agreement, but all this will happen only after the situation has evolved in a serious way and will be unsustainable for the country.
Furthermore, the authors note that the Russian leadership also has options and calculations, as Western sanctions have failed to cripple the Russian economy, popular support for the war remains high, and Moscow feels time is on its side as a force of resistance of Ukraine and its Western supporters. Their resolve will fade, and Russia should be able to substantially expand its territorial gains.
Simply put, Haass and Kupchan are on another planet. They fail to understand that Russia will never accept a scenario where the conflict ends with a ceasefire, but NATO will continue to strengthen Ukraine’s military capabilities and permanently integrate Kiev into the alliance.
As the conflict continues to heat up, it becomes apparent that Russia feels unwilling to accept pressure or imposition from the West, as it has opted for a strategic partnership with China. Moscow’s willingness to coordinate with Beijing to counter military challenges in the Asian region is just the latest example of how Russia is trying to continue to create its own hegemony in the region and in the world, despite the systematic decline of the West and the waning global influence of the United States of America.
While the economic sanctions imposed by the West are causing considerable damage to the Russian economy, Russia does not feel intimidated but rather continues its path by deepening its partnership with China. And, even if public opinion at home demands that Putin redeem the promise made by ordering special military operations, the Russian president will not sacrifice himself on the NATO flag, but will continue on his original determination.
Finally, the epilogue of this geopolitical conflict is yet to be written, and in the meantime Russia is preparing to support and expand its field of action in Asia together with China, contrary to Western expectations. So, one step at a time, the international community is witnessing how Putin’s Russia is defending its interests rather than bowing to Western pressure.
#Ukraine #Stalemate #War #Attrition #News #talking