The country’s political and social thermometer 54 days after the elections

2023-05-02 13:06:33

With 54 days to go before the first round of the 2023 general elections, the Free Survey developed by the ProDatos firm, at the request of Free Press y Guatevision, measures the intention of the vote of Guatemalans to elect the new authorities of the countryin addition to portraying the main problems that affect the population today.

For the measurement, a simulated ballot was used in which the 23 presidential candidates registered in the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) appear. In the process, a total of 1,202 people marked their preference for the candidates in the period from April 14 to 23as will be done on election day, scheduled for June 25.

were made face-to-face interviews in 22 departments and 237 towns to know the problems that the population afflicts and urgently needs to solve, those that affect their immediate environment and at the country level. The economic crisis, insecurity, corruption and unemployment are the ones that hit Guatemalans the most.

Through the responses obtained in the surveys, it is perceived that there is a high level of pessimism among Guatemalans and a low level of confidence that the situation will be resolved in the short term. The data, in addition to covering the intention of the vote, evaluate the management of Alejandro Giammattei and the electoral landscape.

Charging

Variables

Guatemala is a country with high levels of rural population. For that reason, 46 percent of the surveys were run in rural areas, while 33 percent were answered by people in the urban interior, and 21 percent, in the metropolitan area.

The participation of men and women for data collection occurred in the same proportion (50 percent), with a population over 18 years of age.

The Free Survey 2023 reached 237 towns across the country. The interviewers visited the Ánimas Lomas village in Jutiapa. (Free Press Photo: ProDatos)

The margin of error of the Free Survey 2023 is +/- 2.8 percent, with a certainty of 95 percentwhich allows a closer approximation to the results that may be obtained on election day.

This has been demonstrated in previous measurements carried out by ProDatos for Free Presswhich coincide in the tendency of the intention to vote and the final count.

The 2019 general elections are a clear example, when the survey predicted that for the second round, 61.1% of Guatemalans would vote for Alejandro Giammattei and 38.9% for Sandra Torres, calculated on valid votes.

The results coincided with those of the TSE, which declared Giammattei the winner with 57.95% of the valid votes, while Torres came in second place, with 42.04%.

In the Free Survey 2023, the public surveyed was divided into three age ranges: 36 percent were between the ages of 18 and 29, 32 percent were in the 30 to 44 age range, and those 45 and older were 32 percent.

Regarding the socioeconomic level, 87 percent of the participants are located in level D -low-, 11 percent are in level C2/C3 -medium and medium low- and 2 percent are in level BC1 – high and medium high.

In order to have a better representation in the data analyzed in this edition, Within the sample, populations from both the metropolitan area and the province were considered.

To measure Guatemalans’ intention to vote, face-to-face interviews were conducted with people in the Nicaja village in Momostenango, Totonicapán. (Free Press Photo: ProDatos)

The pollsters reached 27 job sectors in the metropolisand places such as Guajitos, Villa Nueva, Bárcenas, Chinautla, Pinares del Norte, Oralia and Martinico can be mentioned.

While in the interior of the country there was rapprochement with Guatemalans in 210 cities. In the case of Alta Verapaz there were 21 sites, including Sechinatemech, Sonté, Chiyó, Pocolá, Tipulcán and Sejol.

Places such as Patzalam, Tuinamas Los Positos, El Carrizal, Chequemebaj and Amelco, in Huehuetenango, were also reached.

Residents of the village Las Tablas in Chiquimula were surveyed to find out who they will vote for in the 2023 General Elections. (Free Press Photo: ProDatos)

Emond Mullet

in what context

In the days in which the Free Survey 2023 was carried out in the national environment, different relevant events occurred in the political, economic and social spheres.

It was news that the United States linked Guatemalan Gabriela Rubio Zea to the Sinaloa cartel and accused her of being an accomplice to four sons of Mexican drug trafficker Joaquín el chapo Guzman.

The sale of appointments in Guatemalan consulates in the United States for procedures such as birth certificates, and the inaction of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in the face of this illegal business marked the agenda for that week.

The uncertainty of what would happen to the Palín-Escuintla highway when the 25-year concession with the Mexican company Marhnos expired began to give people something to talk about. Who would take charge of the stretch of road when the deadline expired on May 1 and what would happen with the collection of the toll was the question of the moment.

It was reported that in the first five days after the flag was given for the political parties to begin the electoral campaign, 15 groups spent Q2.7 million.

Those surveyed had to mark, on a ballot similar to the one that will be used in the next elections, who they will vote for, just as residents of the La Libertad village in Livingston, Izabal did. (Free Press Photo: ProDatos)

special editions

The conclusions of the results of the Free Survey 2023 will be made in several installments, this week.

Tomorrow you will find the results on the intention to vote of Guatemalans segregated by region and by sociodemographic level. In addition to the reasons that would lead them to vote for the candidates in contention, it will be known who are the presidential candidates who generate a greater anti-vote among citizens.

In Thursday’s edition, the problems that afflict the population at the country level and those that affect the communities will be explored. It will be known how optimistic Guatemalans feel and the level of economic well-being they perceive in their daily lives. Who are more pessimistic, whether men or women, young people or adults, is an aspect that will also be analyzed.

Who Guatemalans trust is part of what you will be able to discover that day, as well as the institutions that have the greatest credibility and how this appreciation has evolved in the last elections.

The Free Survey 2023 was carried out by ProDatos for Prensa Libre and Guatevisión, and every corner of the country was visited. (Free Press Photo: ProDatos)

The special edition of the Free Survey 2023 will close on Friday with the evaluation of the population to the management of Alejandro Giammattei, the credibility of the president a few months after leaving office and the fulfillment of his government promises. In addition, a comparative study is made with respect to his predecessors.

A section is also presented with the analysis of two issues for which citizens demand solutions: insecurity and unemployment.

How Guatemalans view characters such as the Attorney General, Consuelo Porras, and the Vice President of the Republic, Guillermo Castillo, will be another of the analyzes that you will find in these installments.