2023-05-05 05:01:00
From Santiago
This Sunday Chileans will vote again as part of a constituent process that seeks to replace the 1980 Constitution, that of the Augusto Pinochet and that in 2005 it was reformed, in part, during the government of the socialist Ricardo Lagos. 50 constitutional advisers will be elected who will draft a text that will be put to a vote on December 17, all under the mandatory voting format. Already in September of last year the first constitutional proposalpresented by a constituent assembly where the left was the majority, was rejected by 61.89% of the population in what represented a defeat for the progressive government of Gabriel Boric that he had made a great effort to promote to the point of being accused of interventionism by the opposition.
The current scenario is quite different, starting with citizen disinterest (or exhaustion) in participating in elections for a Magna Carta that has ceased to be a priority in the country as it was in October 2020when 78% voted “I approve” to generate a new constitution that modifies the conditions of the economic, educational, health and gender gap models among other aspects that the 1980 constitution is widely criticized. According to the Criteria survey, only 31% of the trans-Andean residents stated that they were interested in the process, compared to 60% the previous year.
A pre-cooked constitution
Although the original idea, promoted by both the ruling party and the opposition, was to continue the constituent process, despite the defeat of the “I approve” option, the negotiation lasted months until a solution was reached that sought to avoid the supposed “excesses” of the extinct constitutional convention, in terms of the idea of plurinationality, the end of the Senate and State control of environmental exploitation by private partiesdenounced both by the opposition and by parties such as the Socialist, the DC or the PPD (which had governed with Bachelet).
The proposal that ended up being accepted —without consulting the public, by the way— was that a group of 24 experts will write a draft that will finally be discussed by the 50 elected this Sunday, divided by region, where, depending on their size, they will be able to choose between 2 and 5 representatives, always maintaining parity. The first ones have already been appointed, they began to meet and are mostly lawyers. Between June and November, a constitutional text must be generated.
Something that is far from the spirit of the social outbreak of October 2019 that forced the Piñera government, after a month of social mobilizations, to finally consider drawing up a constituent route, where Boric himself was a key player in reaching a political agreement. .
Closing low profile campaigns
This Thursday the campaigns of the candidates of the constituent body end and there is no scheduled mass act. Only delivery of flyers and “flags”, which are added to the so-called “doves” which are posters with the face, always smiling, of the different applicants where at least two attempts at “story” can be distinguished. On one hand, it is the right under the “Secure Chile” coalition with its promise of a constitution that promotes security, property and order. Among the recognized faces is that of the former transport minister of Piñera Gloria Hutt and the former mayor of Santiago, Jaime Ravinet. The left divided into two pacts —Unidad por Chile and Todo por Chile— has insisted on the idea of overcome the constitution that emerged in the Dictatorship in pursuit of one that provides a dignified life for all Chileans. Although there are not many recognized faces, except for Carmen Free —daughter of the president who died in strange circumstances in 1982—, this due to the prohibition to participate of those who had been in the failed constituent process. The only relevant act would be a “flag” in the center of Santiago organized by the seconds.
This lack of electoral spirit in the population contrasts with that of the politicians and analysts who see in these elections a way of measuring the power of the parties and resolving certain doubts regarding the real adherence of the People’s Party and Republicans. Both located in the most libertarian and extreme right, respectively, who obtained notable results in the past presidential elections at the hands of Franco Parisi y Jose Antonio Kast. Something that could be a headache for the more traditional right that is looking for a successor to the former president. Sebastian Pinera.
The 3/5 on the right
While last year both Boric and the ministers went out to deliver and even sign copies of the new constitution, which became a national best seller, now The process has not been promoted and a national chain is not contemplatedwhatever the result.
But there is another issue that worries the government, to the point of already having a day of analysis scheduled for Wednesday, May 10: the right would obtain 3/5 of the new constituent body but also —according to projections of the ruling party itself— the Communist Party (CP) could come out stronger. This is something that would generate tensions in a government where the Socialist Party has gained power (and ministries including Finance, Defense and the General Secretariat of the Presidency) without having been part of the coalition that supported Boric called Apruebo Dignidad and which included the Broad Front —emerged from the 2011 student mobilizations— and the PC.
“The fate of this process is at stake on May 7. Republicans and the People’s Party are predicted for almost 20 seats. If they exceed 30, they will have veto power because the constitutional norms will need 3/5 to be approved. They are likely to boycott everything”, said Javier Couso, an academic from the Diego Portales University, in an interview for BíoBío radio. On the other hand, UC political scientist Mauricio Morales pointed out that what is at stake is the leadership of the right. “In the opposition there is a fight unleashed for electoral hegemony (…) very it will probably be the Republican Party that gets that hegemonyconsidering the pre-eminence of José Antonio Kast as a presidential candidate and as a true informal shortcut for the Republican Party list.
What has come out is that The president’s advisers, for all the above, consider that it is not prudent to expose it to a context in which the right could emerge strengthened by the total recount of the votes and where the issues that dominate the agenda are linked to security and the migratory crisis on the northern border of the country, where hundreds of Venezuelan citizens entered through steps not enabled and waiting to be repatriated.
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