2023-05-06 22:04:59
Chile is experiencing a new historic electoral day this Sunday, the umpteenth since the start of the constituent process that prompted the social outbreak of 2019 and that almost four years later, and a pandemic in between, has still not been able to conclude.
Boric begins his second year in power by showing his more pragmatic side
Further
More than 15 million voters are summoned to vote for the 50 members of the Constitutional Council (25 men and 25 women) in charge of drafting a proposal for a new Constitution for the second time. The work of the advisers, however, has been questioned by some, who consider that their margin of action will be very limited because the constitutional text began to be written months ago. Since March, a committee of experts appointed by Congress at the proposal of the parties has been preparing a draft that will be the basis on which the elected councilors will work.
A third body made up of 14 jurists will ensure that the final articles conform to 12 institutional principles previously agreed upon by the different political forces and designed to prevent a refoundational text like the one that emerged from the previous process.
“Everything remains in the hands of the parties that will be represented within the Council and that, in a certain way, are also within the Committee of Experts,” Jeanne Simon, a political scientist at the University of Concepción, told elDiario.es. The preponderance of the parties, which are going through a deep crisis of legitimacy, “generates a lack of confidence among the citizens” in this second stage, adds Cristian Ovando, an academic from the Department of Social Sciences at the University of Tarapacá.
“Great disaffection and disinterest”
The expectations of the citizens in the constituent process plummeted after the failure of the first attempt, which ended with the widespread rejection in September of the proposal that was to replace the Constitution emanating from the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet. The design of a new roadmap away from citizens and the emergence of more urgent issues for society also had a considerable influence. He momentum constituent that crossed the country deflated.
“There is great disaffection and disinterest in Sunday’s elections and most voters don’t even know who to vote for,” says Miguel Ángel López, an academic at the University of Chile’s School of Government. For Ovando, “there is a constituent fatigue, a citizen fatigue, because in a very short time there have been more than three elections.”
Experts agree on another factor of lack of interest: the public agenda has been completely taken over by issues related to public security, the migration crisis on the border with Peru and the complex economic situation from which the country cannot get out. The same issues that, according to surveys, concern Chileans the most. “There is a need for immediate responses to very complex issues,” says Raúl Burgos, an expert in Chilean political history at the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso. “In this environment – he continues – it becomes more difficult to discuss issues of political organization or rights whose results will be observed in the medium and long term.”
Mandatory voting and low participation?
The electoral campaign that closed on Thursday was watered down, not very participatory and has failed to motivate voters who, for the first time since 2012, are forced to go to the polls in a candidate election. Millions of citizens will make their debut in expressing their political preferences, hitherto unknown because they have not always exercised their right to vote.
However, despite the obligation, the lack of citizen commitment could lead to a low participation or even cause a considerable increase in null or blank votes. “If there is a high abstention (because the chances of being fined for not participating are very low) or if there are many blank or null votes, the elections would lose a lot of validity and legitimacy,” says López.
balance to the right
Both the government and opposition coalitions compete with separate lists. The center-left and the left, which govern together under the command of Gabriel Boric, have divided, but for the first time since the end of the dictatorship the Socialist Party abandoned its historic alliance with the traditional center-left to join the pact of the bloc of the Broad Front and the Chilean Communist Party.
“A result that is not very optimistic for the government coalition will sharpen the differences between the two sectors,” says Ovando. According to him, “there is a citizen perception of a crisis within the Government since they were not able to unite wills to come together in a single list.”
The right also separated into three lists: the traditional and the emerging, divided into the extreme right of the Republican Party (PR) of José Antonio Kast, a former presidential candidate who won the first round against Boric, and the populist People’s Party (PDG). ). Both debut in a vote of constituents.
“If the extreme right wins, it will have a very strong impact on the traditional right because it will mean a very strong erosion of its social bases,” says Miguel Ángel López. It would also have consequences for the government, increase polarization and shift public opinion as a whole to the right, he adds.
Although the scenarios are open and uncertain, several polls project a victory for the conservative bloc. However, the great unknown is whether the right will add the 30 seats to reach the necessary three-fifths that would allow it to control the Council and approve the articles of its interest without the need to negotiate with other sectors.
Impact on the Boric Government
The Government took note that the September plebiscite ended up being interpreted as an examination of Boric. Unlike then, now the president has chosen to remain silent and distance himself from the process.
The forecasts for government forces are grim. The center-left parties that recently joined the Executive to provide a dose of moderation could receive a bump. However, it remains to be seen if this ends up having an internal impact on the Government and in what way.
Analysts also point to the consequences for the president’s plans. “A victorious right would mark the fate of the great government reforms (health, pensions),” says Cristian Ovando.
The Constitutional Council elected this Sunday will have five months to draft a constitutional proposal, which in December must be submitted, again, to a plebiscite. If the new text is approved, it will be Boric who will sign the new Constitution, even if he disagrees with its content.
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