2023-05-07 16:00:27
Conservative Santiago Penã, from the Colorado Party, who has been in power for 70 years, won the elections on the 30th and will take office in August; From the beginning, Brazilians had their eyes on the possible results of the neighboring country’s election.
Brazil e Paraguay are in the year of renegotiation of the agreement referring to Itaipu, which lasted 50 years and expired last month. At the same time that the two countries need to meet to discuss a renewal of this treaty that establishes the partnership between the two countries for the generation and commercialization of energy, new leaders took over the governments of their countries. On the one hand, the president of Brazil, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT), which has been in power for five months and has an ideology linked to the left, on the other, the conservative santiago pena, which won the elections on the 30th and gave the Colorado Party, which has been in power for 70 years, another five years of government. In a message sent to the Paraguayan, the PT candidate congratulated him on his victory and said he would work with the new leader of the neighboring country for greater bilateral integration. “We are going to work together for increasingly better and stronger relations between our countries, and for a South America with more unity, development and prosperity”, wrote Lula. Since the beginning of the elections, Brazilians had their eyes on the possible results, even more so now, with the policy of the PT government of rapprochement with the countries of the south and the strengthening of Mercosur, in addition to the renegotiation of the new terms of distribution of the benefits of the hydroelectric plant. Itaipu, on which Paraguay expects Brazil to pay more for the excess energy it sells to its neighbor. The issue generated disagreements among the presidential candidates in Paraguay, which is why Brazil was waiting for the elections to start negotiations. The victory of Peña, a leader of the right, was an advantage for Brazil. As a result, Paraguay consolidates itself as an exception in Latin America among so many leftist governments.
“The relationship between the countries tends to improve, for specific reasons. The first is that there is continuity in Paraguay’s power dominance with the election of Santiago Peña. The second is that the Colorado Party has dominated the region for years and, regardless of the profile of Brazilian governments, it has always had a positive relationship”, explains Eduardo Fayet, consultant and specialist in Institutional and Governmental Relations. Fayet believes that the relationship between the countries should be pragmatic, as it has been for years. “I think one of the issues that should be discussed is in relation to electricity due to Itaipu, mainly because Brazil is a big consumer and buys the resource from the Paraguayans, who don’t use everything they produce”, he says. . The specialist adds that it will be necessary to reach a good agreement for both sides, “considering that Brazil needs more energy to be able to grow at a rate sufficient to cope with its population growth and its social, economic and political demands”. Regiane Nitsch Bressan, professor of International Relations at Unifesp, points out that relations between the countries are historical and almost dependent on the Paraguayans. She sees that the change in government has a relatively small impact, given its condition of dependency and the fact that Brazil is resuming ties with the region. “Brazil being interested, I have no doubt that it will try to maintain and continue with increasingly intense relations”. Paraguay is a small country and dependent on its neighbors for access to the sea, which means that its foreign policy does not change. The Mercosur specialist emphasizes that, despite the political party in power, Brazil often “acts with its political and economic weight for its interests, which are not always favorable to the fight against inequalities and the reduction of existing asymmetries in the region”.
She recalls that over these 70 years, due to Paraguay’s need, Brazil maintained a continuous dialogue – the country still pays the price because of the Paraguayan War, which took place from 1864 to 1870. of alternation in power, this shows that the country is a conservative that had difficulty in applying new social and economic policies that would help the country to reduce poverty and historical inequality. I see with caution this maintenance of power due to the situation in the country”, says the professor. Eduardo Fayet points out that, in addition to the economy focused on agriculture, which generates little added value for the nation itself, and the lack of development in terms of technology and innovation, the country also suffers from the issue of criminal activities, such as drug smuggling. “They supported themselves with raw material and commodity products. Not having industrialization, it’s not just wealth, it’s the lack of jobs and exports”, says Regiane, who also points out that this will be one of the biggest problems that Santiago Peña will have to solve in his years in government. “He could pick a few products and be internationally competitive. The country remains dependent on foreign capital. Industrialization would be a way to reduce the asymmetry”. Both experts say that, even though Paraguay is more dependent on Brazil than the other way around, the relationship between them is important. Especially because all Mercosur decisions are unanimous, that is, it makes countries dependent on each other. “Brazil intends to continue the negotiation with Mercosur and the European Union, and Paraguay needs to ratify the agreement for it to come into force”, says the professor, recalling that Bolivia’s entry into the organization depends on the approval of Paraguayans.
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