2023-05-08 06:04:26
The expectations of the left to block the way to an increasingly predictable absolute majority of the right in the general elections next autumn are fading.
The latest orchestrated attack targeted the weakest link in the center-right chain, that is, Vox. The goal pursued was to get Sumar to become the third political force in the majority of the 52 provincial constituencies to replace Vox in that position and prevent this formation from obtaining representation or reduce it to a minimum so that they could not add seats with the popular ones to that the computation of deputies of PP and Vox reach an absolute majority.
In the NC Report poll for LA RAZÓN, it is recorded that there are 30 provinces in which Vox and Sumar have the potential to obtain seats. Vox obtains representation in 25, while Sumar does so in 20. In 14 provincial constituencies Vox prevails over Sumar in seats, while Yolanda Díaz’s party defeats Vox in only 7 provinces. In another 9 provinces there is a tie between both candidacies. Sumar’s miscalculation was not taking into account that, sociologically, most of the provinces in which not all deputies are recruited by PSOE and PP are conservative.
Therefore, despite the “new” political brand Sumar, the right-wing maintains an expectation of exceeding 180 seats in the Congress of Deputies, while all the formations of the left at the national level today would total 123 deputies, compared to 158 November 2019. Hence the desperation to stop the passage of this new center-right social majority.
The marketing operation of the Yolanda Díaz project was the last cartridge of the left to re-motivate their electorates. Both the 2019 voter of the PSOE and of Unidas Podemos and their confluences are especially demobilized: 7.4% of PSOE voters today would not vote, as well as 7.8% of Unidas Podemos. In total there are 748,000 voters. Another mistake made by the designers of this new political project has been to consider that these voters would succumb to the “electoral charms” of Díaz. Quite the contrary, these 748,000 voters know that the next government in Spain will be center-right and they are aware that their abstention will facilitate it. In other words, they prefer the rights in government. We already saw it in the general elections of 2011. Also in the regional elections of the Community of Madrid (2021) and Andalusia (2018 and 2022).
In addition, they have not kept in mind that formulas such as Sumar’s could subtract the PSOE. Having bet from Ferraz and Moncloa on Yolanda Díaz has confused the electorate of the PSOE. Up to 422,000 socialist voters have already decided to abandon Sánchez to go to the Yolanda Díaz project.
This weakening of the Socialist Party is accompanied by a collapse of Podemos, which would be reduced to 2-4 deputies. And if we finally consider that Sumar has not met the expectations of its creators, since it would hardly reach 30 seats, we come to the conclusion that the “Yolanda operation” has been a failure.
The center-right is leading the 28-M elections as a stage prior to the general ones. The main unknown to clear up this month is whether the transfer of voters from Vox to the PP increases, which would allow Feijóo to aspire to govern alone after the general elections. As of today, 23.7% of the Vox electorate has already decided to vote for the PP, and at the moment it represents a quarter of the electoral base of those of Santiago Abascal. Regarding Citizens, the percentage of those who go over to the PP of Alberto Núñez Feijóo represents 71.6%.
#failure #left