2023-05-15 12:09:50
Victory for some, cold shower for others. And a Türkiye still waiting. The day after an election which mobilized the Turkish electorate with a turnout of 92% to 93%, neither of the two candidates was able to obtain 50% of the votes for his name and Turkey will have to wait until 28 May, and a second round, to find out the name of its president.
Erdogan almost certain to win
The current head of state claims to be convinced “to serve his country for another five years”. If he enjoys a lead of more than 4 points in front of his rival, it is still the first time that Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been forced to appear in the second round. With the lead of some 2.6 million votes he has – he won 49.4% of the vote – he is however almost certain to win. It will indeed be more difficult for the opposition candidate Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, credited with 44.9% of the vote, to catch up.
This Sunday, the Turks also voted to renew their Parliament. According to figures from the Anadolu press agency (99.26% of ballots counted), the alliance led by the ruling party (AKP) obtained around 49.37% of the vote, against 35.13% for the Kiliçdaroglu National Alliance. The AKP alone won 35.48% of the vote.
Thanks to its alliance formed with the Nationalist Action Party (MHP), the New Welfare Party and the Great Union Party, the AKP is guaranteed to retain a majority in parliament with 323 seats out of 600. “In Parliament Erdogan has an absolute majority, which is an asset for him in the campaign for the second round, explains Jean Marcou, professor of law at Sciences Po Grenoble. He will be able to put forward that by being elected, he will be the only one to be able to govern. »
With only 214 deputies, the six-party opposition bloc led by Kiliçdaroglu will not be able to organize a referendum to change the Constitution and return to a parliamentary regime, which was one of its campaign promises. And even in the event of a victory for candidate Kemal Kiliçdaroglu in the presidential election on May 28, the institutions could not be changed.
A solid electoral base for the AKP
The first round confirmed that Erdogan maintained a very strong and solid electoral base, especially in the towns and villages of Anatolia. But not only: in the departments of south-eastern Turkey, very affected by the earthquake, his party remains in the majority. Even if, here too, the opposition candidate was able to mobilize part of the electorate in his favor.
“The hypothesis of a second round was expected and, in this sense, there were no surprises, continues Jean Marcou. Except that the opposition hoped for a much tighter result between the two candidates. » The real surprise came from the score of Sinan Ogan, the ultranationalist candidate. Arrived in third position, with 5.3% of the vote, he will be the referee of the second round. And it is likely that this nationalist party will trade its support and end up getting along with President Erdogan.
If he refused to say for which candidate he would call to vote, Sinan Ogan has already announced that he would lean in favor of the one who would marginalize the pro-Kurdish party and expel the Syrian refugees. A promise launched, during the campaign, by Erdogan but also by Kiliçdaroglu.
A very heterogeneous opposition
What did candidate Kiliçdaroglu miss to take the lead after this first round? “He is not a candidate by default, analyzes Jean Marcou, and he mobilized the Kurdish vote, which was not easy for his party. The problem for this opposition is to prove its ability to govern with such a heterogeneous coalition (which goes from the left to a moderate nationalist party, Editor’s note). »
In an attempt to catch up, “Kiliçdaroglu can play on the theme of democracy and tell the Turks that they shouldn’t somehow put all their eggs in one basket but choose to balance between the parliament won over to the AKP and the executive, continues Jean Marcou. In the eyes of the opposition, anything can still happen”.
#Erdogan #confidence