2023-05-18 10:35:08
The decision of Guillermo Lasso of dissolve the legislature and rule by decree until new parliamentary and presidential elections are held is a new chapter in a widespread crisis that shakes Ecuador for years. The former banker assumed power on May 24, 2021 and was never able to address the situation inherited from Lenin Moreno. His right-wing government was very weakened after numerous protests after losing a referendum and the regional elections last February. Five keys explain the origin and evolution of the Ecuadorian political crisis.
1. “Cross death”, the dissolution of the National Assembly
Analysts agree that the president took a step forward seeing that he would be dismissed by the National Assembly where he was undergoing a impeachment by malpractice. Lasso must have sensed that the followers of ex-President Rafael Correa and the Social Christians had guaranteed themselves enough votes for the motion of censure and that, if they failed this time, they would try again shortly to follow the same path of removal. Once he had obtained the support of the military and the police made the announcement of the dissolution of the Chamber – a figure known as “cross death”-alleging the existence of a “destabilization of democracy and the state“. Complaints of corruption to the detriment of the state had deepened the isolation. The Constitutional Court only allowed him to be tried in Congress for embezzlement. In this way, Lasso avoided facing the most media complaints that have to do with the alleged business with the public companies carried out by his brother-in-law, Danilo Carrera.
2. Next election date
The dissolution from National Assembly grants to president special powers for the duration of his tenure. The electoral authorities have until May 24 to establish the date of the elections.
He National Electoral Council (CNE) should design the roadmap in the middle of a very hot environment e unpredictable. If all the requirements were met and most of the parties ended up accepting the new calendar, something today seems unlikely, Ecuadorians would have to go to the polls in a 90 day period. The winners of the presidential and parliamentary contests should hold office for the remainder of the remaining term of the current administration of Lasso and the National Assemblyuntil May 2025.
3. The danger of ruling by decree
Lasso received the support of the United States, Mexico and Peru, but Ecuador has entered a tunnel with no exit in sight. The forces that tried to throw him out, correistas and social christians, have conflicting interests beyond a common aversion towards the ex-banker. He indigenous movementthe other great political actor in that country, he is preparing to face in the street what he describes as “an own blow“. Lasso’s possibility of rule by decree promises to be a source of high political conflict. Andrés Arauz, the correísta who lost in the second round against the current president two years ago, predicted that “a very turbulent political time is coming” due to the government’s attempt to “impose a plutocratic agenda”. And he added what was understood as a call to prevent the continuity of Lasso. “Are we going to give him more months?” she posed. The followers of Rafael Correa they feel invigorated after their victory in the regional elections. However, other sectors discuss the leadership of the former president, currently in exile in Belgiumto lead the protests.
4. Lasso’s Obstacles
He former banker won the elections because part of society imposed the rejection to the figure of Correa. As soon as he took the reins of the State, he began to be challenged by the indigenous movement and others social forces. Lasso emerged unscathed last year from an attempt to impeachment, but he was never able to straighten out his presidential project. In the eyes of the specialists, he appeared as one more exponent of a structural deficit reminiscent of that of 1999-2000, which led to the dollarization of the economy, still current. Internal circumstances did not favor the Government either. Ecuador has not been able to recover the levels of activity prior to the pandemic. The poverty is 25%. The extreme poberty It has gone from 8.9% to 10.7% last year. One of the sources of popular consumption are the remittances arriving from the United States, Spain and other European countries, and which in 2022 amounted to 4,783 million dollars.
5.. The security problem
Lasso promised to solve the growing problem of urban security, threatened by the unprecedented irruption of drug gangs that dispute the territories with blood and fire. For Ecuadorians, the 2022 has been the most violent year of his story. The National Police reported 4,450 murders and more than 332 femicides, more than half at the hands of the organized crime. The homicide rate per 100,000 inhabitants has already reached 25.5, making the country the sixth most violent in the region. He Exception status It only aggravated the problem, in the same way as the decision to involve the Armed Forces in the fight against drug traffickers. The war between criminal organizations has moved to prisons. Since 2021, more than 420 inmates have died in different massacres perpetrated in prison facilities.
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