2023-05-17 00:32:08
Why is it VERY dangerous to supply Ukraine with missiles capable of striking the territory of the Russian Federation, such as the British Storm Shadows?
Because one of NATO’s plans for a first “decapitation strike” against Russia centers on a sweeping cruise missile attack. As a result, if Russia’s warning systems go off registering a large salvo of incoming cruise missiles, they must decide whether to launch a second strike or not.
Because they have no way of knowing:
1) what kind of warheads are on those missiles
2) what kind of missile it is (there are characteristic radar signatures, but it’s not like they are accompanied by a real label)
3) what is the real range of the missiles (it is rated for most strategic weapons)
4) What are their goals
This scenario has been talked about endlessly for many, many years.
The Russian decision problem is as follows:
Suppose Russia assumes that the first major salvo fired from Ukraine at Russia is armed with conventional warheads and tries to shoot it down, destroying a large percentage of it, but the rest hits targets with conventional explosives. What happens?
Firstly, this is completely unacceptable in itself, because many of these targets will be airfields and military bases, i.e. real strategic capability will be eroded.
Second, and most importantly, if Russia agrees to receive this first salvo without responding with a nuclear strike, it invites another salvo, but with nuclear warheads.
Source: Roberto Buffagni – Ariadne
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