2023-05-13 08:26:57
Small anthology of scenarios about the presidential election.
If the budget to organize it properly is insufficient, there are two possibilities.
option one, the Government will seize this pretext to postpone the elections and stay in power. The opposition, civil society and donors will denounce this anti-democratic manoeuvre. There will be a risk of a pre-election crisis.
option two, the Government will organize botched elections, which will increase the potential for failures in the electoral system, and therefore favor the rejection of the results by the defeated. There will be a risk of a post-election crisis.
If Andry Rajoelina stands for his own re-electionand takes advantage of its status to put all the chances on its side in an “African” election (“we do not organize elections to lose them” as former Congolese President Pascal Lissouba used to say), there will be a risk of pre-election crisis.
option one, if he wins in the current context where suspicion is high on the government’s lack of will to want a fair and transparent election, the opposition will reject the results, and there will be a risk of a post-election crisis.
option two, if he loses in the current context where fake news and shameless propaganda have created the fanaticism of his fan club, it will reject the election result, and there will be a risk of a post-election crisis. Especially since the main reason why those in power cling to it is certainly not out of patriotism, but to safeguard their access to the feast and hide the pans from prying eyes.
It therefore seems that whatever the scenario, a crisis is probable. However, insofar as nobody wishes it, one can evoke the conditions under which one can still avoid it.
The first step is to smooth out the electoral framework to build trust and lay the foundations for a peaceful election. Among the parameters, the Government’s reaction to the demands of the opposition or civil society such as the overhaul of the National and Independent Electoral Commission and the High Constitutional Court, a national consultation, or even a transition. Gestures of goodwill on the part of the Government (but also of the opposition) will then facilitate access to international electoral funding, and therefore to better organization. This funding should also be used to support the establishment of a national election observation system that is effective in 100% of polling stations, unlike that of the 2001 presidential election.
The only real problem, and which makes us pessimistic about the lack of realism of these solutions, is that it is the institutions that manage politics, but it is men and women who are at the base of the institutions. In the field of democracy and good governance, the behavior of each other since 2009 to date does not promote either optimism or confidence. Hoping for them to change for the better is wishful thinking. Indeed, it takes more than the inauguration of a Democracy Square to claim to be a democrat.
#Election