2023-05-23 18:28:44
To these questions Yuri Drakakhrusta the Svaboda Premium channel is answered by the senior analyst of the Belarusian Institute of Strategic Studies, the research director of the Institute of Development and Social Market for Belarus and Eastern Europe Andrei Lavrukhin.
— Andrei, the other day you published an article entitled “All conditions have been created for a military dictatorship“. You expressed your opinion within the framework of the discussion that broke out during Lukashenka’s illness. He seems to have recovered, he even went to Moscow. But the problem actually did not disappear. So what kind of conditions for a military dictatorship have been created in Belarus?
– Many current representatives of the civil authorities in Belarus wear epaulettes under their civilian uniforms. Political scientists call this category of officials “agents of the political elite.”
Previously, Belarus had the inertia of the Soviet era, when the security forces still obeyed the civilian political elite, and at the same time they were such “agents of the political elite”. But we saw how legitimacy was shaken in 2020 Alexander Lukashenka. It faltered not only in the eyes of the civilian elite, but also in the eyes of the military elite.
– And what did it manifest itself in?
– In 2020, there were fights with security forces on the streets. And then not all people in uniform were sure that it was necessary to do as it was done. And sometimes they got a good kick out of it. It was a big threat.
That is why Lukashenka then turned to Vladimir Putin. He lacked confidence that he would be able to deal with the protest movement on his own.
– But I figured it out.
– Yes. But the inauguration took place almost in front of the military. And then we saw who filled the high positions in the state apparatus, in whose interests the legislation was changed, even in such a sphere as education. And the society already functioned in fact according to the laws of the military dictatorship.
By the way, in January 2021 Andrzej Pachobut in Gazeta Wyborcza noted the appearance of signs of a classical military dictatorship in Belarus.
– Indeed, we can name a number of influential officials with a military background who have gained weight in recent years: Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko, Secretary of the Security Council Alyaksandar Valfovich, Head of Lukashenka’s administration Ihar Sergeenko, regional commissioners, former Minister of Internal Affairs Yury Karaev and former chairman KGB Valer Vakulchyk. But there were many of them in the past – Vladimir Zamyatalin, Ural Latipov, Vladimir Makei.
So, can we say that in recent years there has been a certain influx of people in uniforms into the state apparatus?
– My prediction about the military dictatorship is more about the time and the situation when Lukashenka disappears. The current dictatorship is personalistic, it rests on the personality and charisma of Lukashenka. Question: what will happen to this system if Lukashenka disappears? Who will seize power then? In recent years, Lukashenka has done everything to strengthen the system through the security forces. They used to obey him. But if he is not there, and they will have almost all the power?
The public will see that the civilian leadership is unable to cope with the situation. And the challenges will be incomparable to those that existed even during Lukashenka’s time.
The war continues, external conditions are very harsh, pressure from Russia is strong, militarization in connection with the war and possible internal protests will continue. And, on the one hand, there will be an infrastructure of violence in the form of power institutions. And on the other hand, there is a request from the part of the society that was behind Lukashenka, which is about 30%. By the way, according to polls, we see that now, in the conditions of war, part of the “swamp” has begun to unite around Lukashenka.
And this part will form the request for a “stiff hand” (or “hands”).
It is clear that there will be no such charismatic leader. So, some other structure of power must appear.
— You referred to Pachobut’s opinion expressed in January 2021. Here is a recent interview with the “Zerkalo” portal of John Bolton, the former national security adviser to the US president. He talks about the lessons of 2020: “I understand the disappointment of Belarusians. Now they have two problems. The first is the problems caused by the current government. The second is the threat of an even tougher, even more authoritarian government coming to power.”
Did any other Western experts express similar thoughts – that the situation in Belarus could become much worse than it is?
— I know several Polish and German analysts who believe that the Belarusian ruling elites will try to preserve the existing regime in the event of Lukashenka’s departure. But this requires stricter management.
Lukashenka does not appoint any successor. And his successors will not have time to acquire even the legitimacy that Lukashenka now has.
The influence of Russia should also be taken into account. Belarus will only be interested in it as a military base. Economic, cultural, political factors – all this social “soft” – will be in the hundredth place in Russia, which is at war.
Considerations of security and war will prevail.
– From your words, it follows that, paradoxically, Lukashenka is the guarantor that the country will not fall into an even more terrible, more brutal dictatorship. So the conclusion: is it necessary to protect Lukashenka?
– Partly, yes. If my prediction comes true.
— If your prediction comes true, Lukashenka may no longer be in this world. So, it turns out, he needs to be protected now?
– Well, I could be wrong. But Lukashenka clings to the old charismatic legitimacy, his dictatorship is civilian. A good number of Belarusians believe that nothing much has changed in their lives. Like, yes, some people are in prisons, but many things have not changed for many. As always, under the leadership of Lukashenko, as always, life goes on.
Lukashenka’s departure will be a shock. For many, it will be a holiday, champagne will be uncorked. But you need to think about what will happen next.
He created such a situation. But he is the guarantor that the country did not fall into an even more brutal and unpredictable dictatorship.
With Lukashenko, we more or less know what will happen.
– I would object to you. Let’s say at the beginning of 2021, after the protests and uprising ended, there were still hundreds of political prisoners, 1,200 public organizations still existed, Tut.by worked in Minsk, tens of thousands of today’s emigrants lived in Belarus. Now the number of political prisoners is in the thousands, more than 1,200 non-governmental organizations have been liquidated, independent media are in exile.
There was a certain dynamic, there were Stalin’s terms of imprisonment, there were many repressive laws, up to executions, adopted later. In January 2021, we did not know that events would develop in this way.
And what other, higher level of cruelty can you imagine?
– We have seen what the security forces are capable of when they are let off the chain. In 2020, people were killed. And it was still stopped.
Now the political power finds political and legal arguments that convince part of the society that what was done and is being done is fair, normal and legal. But within the limits of the forecast that I make, repressions, including murders, will no longer even be attempted to be justified.
Lukashenka still has political talent (albeit diabolical), great political experience. Successors will have none of this, we don’t know any of them. And their policy will be pure violence.
– Andrei, the military dictatorship, the junta is something exotic in our region. Juntas are in Latin America, in Asia, in Africa. There was plenty of different things on our lands, but not this. Why will the Belarusian security forces start building Chile during the Pinochet era or Argentina during the “dirty war”? They have other historical patterns in their brains.
– Military dictatorships are not only in Latin America, Asia and Africa. Francoist Spain, Poland during martial law, military rule in Portugal after the revolution of 1973 – this is Europe.
In Spain, after the civil war, 20 thousand people were killed, tens of thousands died in prison and half a million fled the country.
At least 177,000 people have already fled Belarus. And this is from a population of approximately 9 million. There were about 25 million people living in Spain in the 1930s.
In Belarus, the death penalty for “treason against the state” has been introduced for civil servants and military personnel. And I do not rule out that there will be murders.
In 2020, the security forces showed their moral capabilities. Killing people is easy for them. A strong political power then reined in this chaos, a force that was beginning to break out into space.
– At the beginning, you said about the strong influence of Russia. And what is her role in the scenario of the military dictatorship that you have drawn? Russia is at war, Russia is under unprecedented sanctions. But there is no military dictatorship there. Will dependence on Russia contribute to the movement of Belarus to a much more repressive dictatorship? Brutal military dictatorships are not very stable, the same Argentine dictatorship in 1983 collapsed instantly.
– We also saw in 2020 that Putin tried to follow two paths. On the one hand, he brought the Rosguard to the border of Belarus, and on the other hand, he said that the Belarusian government needed to enter into some kind of dialogue.
I think that the same will happen in the case of the crisis in Belarus, connected with the departure of Lukashenka.
But everything depends on what will happen with Russia itself.
It is possible that Russia itself will move in the same direction of significant increase in repression.
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