2023-05-26 11:00:13
SIf France’s greenhouse gas emissions are on the decline, the extension of current trends does not lead to the objective of carbon neutrality in 2050. Even taking into account recent progress and the extension of the policies currently in place, emissions will remain significantly higher than the milestone targets of the national low-carbon strategy (SNBC) – the 2020 law which sets the emissions targets that France sets for itself over different time horizons. Significant changes should therefore be undertaken now. But they will unfortunately be neither free nor spontaneous…
The amount of investment needed can be calculated from a representation of the “physical” changes that need to take place in each sector. Rexecode thus calculated, in its study published in 2022, the cost of housing renovation work, the additional cost of low-carbon cars and trucks that are going to have to be purchased, the cost of modernizing factories, etc. As a result, total additional investment expenditure should be between 58 and 80 billion euros per year until 2030. This “decarbonisation budget” could also be revised significantly upwards in the coming months in due to the alignment of the French objective with the new European objective. The SNBC currently being revised should provide for a reduction target of 55% in 2030 compared to 1990, compared to 40% currently.
Since 1990, the vast majority of reductions in France have been achieved in the industrial sector. In construction (heating and air conditioning of housing and business premises) or agriculture, the declines were smaller. The transport sector is the only one that has seen its emissions increase. If we want to accelerate the reduction, we will have to tackle much more frankly the emissions of buildings and transport, which affect everyone more directly.
Further inflation
According to our calculations, the effort would be split roughly halfway between households and businesses. Households are mainly concerned by the costs of insulating homes and the additional costs of changing vehicles. Today, 75% of the housing stock has an energy label less than or equal to D, while the objective is to achieve class A or B for all. Likewise, electric cars today represent only 1 % of the rolling stock. While their share of new vehicle sales increases sharply (13% in 2022), we are far from the target of 100% new low-carbon vehicles by 2035. The transformations required of households therefore represent a considerable staircase step.
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