2023-05-24 20:20:47
On May 17, the government of Guillermo Lasso announced at a press conference that, invoking Article 148 of the Constitution, it proceeded to dissolve the National Assembly and called for immediate new presidential and legislative elections for the remainder of its term. . Immediately, the military and police leaderships expressed their support for this decision and urged the population to respect it, warning that in case they want to “alter the constitutional regime”, the Armed Forces and the police will act firmly.
Fear: Miguel Merino (ART)
Article 148 of the Constitution says: “The President of the Republic may dissolve the National Assembly when, in her opinion, it has assumed functions that do not correspond to it constitutionally, following the opinion of the Constitutional Court; or if she repeatedly or unjustifiably obstructs the execution of the National Development Plan, or due to a serious political crisis or internal commotion”. Specifically, Lasso based his decision on the third ground, that is, “serious political crisis and internal commotion.” However, for the vast majority of journalists and the Ecuadorian population, what defined the application of this measure was the imminent censorship and dismissal of Lasso in the impeachment trial that followed the National Assembly.
Several organizations and political groups of various tendencies immediately challenged this resolution before the Constitutional Court, considering it unconstitutional, illegal and non-existent in fact, but this body dismissed these demands and the so-called “cross death” as it is known remained firm. figure introduced in the current Constitution.
Citizens’ reaction to government measures
The demands of unconstitutionality against the “cross death” were not accompanied by mobilizations or protests in the streets, except for some small demonstrations carried out by the National Union of Educators and university students linked to the Popular Unity, a legal political organization located on the slope of the Stalinist left. CONAIE, led by Leonidas Iza, which had warned a few weeks ago that it would mobilize if the government dissolved the Assembly, did not do so, arguing that the country’s conditions were not suitable for taking this type of action.
Among the reasons that explain the apathy of citizens in the face of a measure described as dictatorial by various sectors, is the low acceptance of the National Assembly due to the mediocrity of many of its members, as well as its opportunism, corruption and lack of coherence. and political honesty. The state of shock in which the population finds itself in the face of the crime wave and the violence that is experienced in the streets of many cities also had an influence.
Legality of the “cross death” and political crisis
The cause indicated for cross death is very subjective and can be subject to various interpretations. Although it is true that at the time the measure was issued there was no internal commotion, since all social activities were carried out normally, it cannot be ignored that the context was one of an acute political crisis, for the following reasons:
– Due to the delegitimization and unpopularity of the Lasso government, due to its neoliberal policies that have not provided solutions, not even partial ones, to the main social demands of the population and have rather benefited small groups of the financial and commercial bourgeoisie.
– Because the political trial that the National Assembly was processing to dismiss Lasso was about to be resolved, with a probable presidential dismissal.
– Due to the defeat suffered by the government in the recently held sectional elections, including the popular consultation, where the main opposition groups (UNES, PK and PSC) were victorious, a situation that was reflected in the recent election of the authorities of the National Assembly.
– Due to the growing crisis of violence and insecurity that is plaguing the country and has generated a climate of fear and hopelessness in the population.
– For the important struggles of the popular sectors such as the strikes carried out in October 2019 and the most recent one in June 22, led by the indigenous movement and CONAIE. The latter gave way to dialogue tables whose fundamental agreements have not been fulfilled by the government.
– Due to the institutional crisis that has involved the functions and almost all state entities, affected by administrative ineffectiveness, the struggles between them and corruption.
Political and social consequences of the “cross death”.
The first consequence of the measure adopted by the government (which is in force from May 17 until the first days of November, when the new legislative and executive authorities will take office) is that Lasso will govern without any legislative or control counterweight.
It will do so by means of “economic emergency decree-laws” with the prior ruling of the Constitutional Court, as indicated in the Constitution. Economic management is a broad and ambiguous notion that covers a wide universe of tax and labor issues, exploitation of natural resources, management of public companies, contracting of infrastructure works and services of various kinds such as electricity, drinking water, telephony, Internet, customs, etc. Consequently, there is a high risk that economic management compromises economic, social, environmental and cultural rights related to education, health, food sovereignty, social security, the environment, etc., as various social organizations and organizations have warned. of human rights.
There are no guarantees that the Constitutional Court impartially exercises its obligation to protect the constitutional rights of citizens and the sovereignty of the State, since its role has been more of an arbitrator between state powers, now centralized in the executive. Furthermore, there is no confidence that Lasso will not exceed his duties and intend to pass laws and decrees that are beneficial for the sectors of the bourgeoisie that he represents, but will have harmful effects for the workers and the impoverished majority of the population, as already It has happened in these two years of his government.
At the present time, the reforms to the Tax Law that imposed high taxes, especially on the middle class, are already in process, trying to alleviate the disastrous consequences that said law had. It has also just announced the issuance of a new Investment Law decree to create free zones in the country, which will benefit exporters as they will be exempted from various taxes and will have new logistical incentives. Some analysts have warned that this measure tends to favor the laundering of money from drug trafficking. A new package of labor reforms was also announced, but the government has not yet dared to issue them for fear of the workers’ reaction.
Characterization of the new political situation
Several questions arise after the decision of the “cross death”: was there a coup d’état by the executive against the Assembly by having dissolved it? Was it a self-coup, since the government will end its functions before the legally established period? Is there a Bonapartist turn for the strengthening of the executive power with the unconditional support of the Armed Forces and the police, that is, the repressive apparatus of the State? Has there been a change in the political regime? What will happen in the new legislative and executive elections scheduled for August 20?
We can affirm that we are facing an unprecedented situation in the history of the country that partly combines something from each of the categories indicated. There was a coup against the Assembly because it was dissolved and it is considered a central and inevitable element of the bourgeois State, according to the principle of the separation of powers. It was also a self-coup, to the extent that the Lasso government will end its term early after the new elections, unless he stands as a candidate and is elected at the polls. There is a Bonapartist turn since authoritarianism is consolidated based on police and military repression, a fact that had been happening for some time, but now has a constitutional basis.
It would not be appropriate to speak of a total dictatorship since the Constitution has not been broken, the executive ends its term in about six months and has certain legal limitations. There is no doubt that there has been a change of regime since the legislative branch does not exist and there will be an institutional reordering of the functions of the State, with a new transitional government that will only last a year and a half in office.
Elections: central element of the political situation
A new political stage has opened where the central element is the presidential and legislative elections that will take place within a very short period. There is very little time for the definition of the candidacies and their registration in the National Electoral Council. A high number of candidacies can be foreseen due to the conditions of dispersion and low level of credibility that affects almost all the parties and movements of the national political spectrum, especially CREO, the party of the current ruler.
There are three political groups that have a base and social support, but limited. The first is correísmo (UNES), which is the most organized force at the national level, achieved the best results in the recent sectional elections and has reaped the disaster of the Lazzo government. However, it does not have candidates with popular support for the upcoming presidential elections. The second is Pachakutik, a political expression of the indigenous movement, afflicted by a strong division between the faction that managed to be bought by the ruling party and the most critical sector, related to CONAIE, which maintains the original ideological and programmatic principles of the movement. The third is the Social Christian Party (PSC), the most representative and organized political party on the right, but also worn out by its support for Lasso, although it later went to the opposition bloc in the National Assembly. Its historical leader, Jaime Nebot, has once again declined his candidacy for the presidency of the Republic and has decided to support a new and almost unknown figure, the economist Jean Tópic, whose letter of introduction is to be an expert in security, and is trying to appear like the Ecuadorian Bukele.
Although in the chaotic Ecuadorian politics it is very difficult to make predictions, the most predictable thing in the upcoming electoral contest is that it will be defined between the candidates put up by correísmo and the right-wing candidates who obtain more support at the polls. This means that state power will be settled between the fractions of the bourgeoisie, but they agree to maintain the capitalist order.
However, the weight that the candidacies of the indigenous movement and CONAIE, whose most recognized leader is Leonidas Iza, should not be ruled out. If so, the correismo/anti-correismo dichotomy that has dominated the Ecuadorian political scene since 2006 would be broken. Iza has called for the unity of the popular camp around a program of democratic demands whose axis is the fight against the neoliberal model.
Since the elections are managed by the bourgeoisie, our proposal as ART is not to trust any of the options of the bourgeoisie, whether neoliberal or reformist. The only way to overcome the serious economic, social, environmental and insecurity crisis that plagues us is through the struggle, mobilization and organization of the working class and the oppressed sectors, around a program of structural transformations that put an end to the poverty, inequality and exploitation inherent in the global capitalist system, now in deep crisis.
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