2023-06-04 04:55:00
Russia’s ferocious attack on the Ukraine produced in Germany what Foreign Minister Olaf Scholz called a Zeitenwende (change of era) with several consequences. One of them was the impact on the military, going from a time of prolonged peace to a time of possible wars for the German people. As Minister for International Relations Annalena Baerbock has said: “Between Berlin and Ukraine, there are only ten hours by road. For us, those ten hours today represent the distance between peace and war.” Faced with this colossal change, Berlin has had to rethink its defense strategy in depth.
The period of prolonged peace rested on the protection offered by the US and NATO, added to the idea expressed by Chancellor Scholz regarding Russia: “A close economic interdependence would ensure both our economic stability and our security.” . Indeed, throughout the last three decades German policy had sought to keep military spending as low as possible, understanding that it was not necessary to maintain a force of 500,000 soldiers when all the neighbors seemed to be friends or associates.
The fundamental laws of the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) had assigned an essentially defensive role to the armed forces, which could be exercised on the national territory or within the framework of NATO. These laws prohibited all “aggressive warfare”, providing for strict parliamentary controls. Thus, there was much debate in what kind of foreign operations the German armed forces should be involved in. Consequently, the FRG did not participate in the first Iraq war in 1991. And after German reunification, it carried out missions in Cambodia and Somalia, but under a United Nations mandate.
However, the “Kohl doctrine” according to which German soldiers could not move to countries that had been occupied by the Wehrmacht (German army), came to be replaced by the “Fischer doctrine”. Thus, the Minister of Foreign Affairs Joschka Fischer –of the Green party–, authorized for the first time the participation of German forces in the framework of the NATO attacks on Kosovo in 1999. Later, the participation in NATO operations in Afghanistan since 2002, was subjected to several restrictions, which largely reflected the political impossibility of assuming the hypothesis of participating in a war.
Indeed, during this time of prolonged peace, Germany has defined itself as a “civilian power.” Accentuating this characteristic, it is important to note that among the parties that make up the semaphore coalition in power (Social Democrats, Liberals, and Greens), 40% of their deputies were born after 1981. It means that they grew up after the Cold War, a period characterized by pacifism and a process of globalization regulated by law.
But the shock caused by the Russian invasion in the Ukraine made Germany think openly again in geopolitical and strategic terms. Cradle of great experts in geopolitics, Germany came to ban the term “geopolitics” after World War II, due to its territorial implications. On the other hand, former Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer referred at the time to the absence of a common strategic culture between Berlin and Paris in the following terms: “Unlike Germany, France has an uninterrupted military tradition”, adding that “In Germany we have been very cautious about big visions, given our history.”
Thus, the shock caused by the Russian military attack has been fierce for the world’s fourth largest economy, which, believing it was living in a post-traumatic era, had convinced itself that war definitely belonged to the past. For this reason, Germany assigned only 1.5% of its GDP to its armed forces, which represented some 48 billion euros. However, the German forces did not make much of an impression. They were designed to participate in limited-range operations, or within NATO structures, which was the true guarantor of their territorial security. This approach had the consequence of turning it into a force with certain operational limitations, which eroded its prestige with its allies.
In this context, Olaf Scholz’s announcement in February 2022 about the creation of a special fund for the Bundeswehr (federal armed forces), of 100 billion euros, has changed expectations. It was necessary to change the Constitution to authorize this fund. Added to this is bringing annual military spending to 2% of GDP. Scholz’s goal is to build “the largest conventional army in Europe within NATO”, anticipating spending between 70 and 80 billion a year on defense.” Along these lines, Berlin has announced its intention to acquire 35 F-35 combat aircraft from the North American company Lockheed-Martin, in order to continue carrying out nuclear deterrence missions –it carries B-61 Mod 12 nuclear bombs–, within the framework of NATO.
In parallel, Germany has sought to help Ukraine in various ways during the conflict with Russia, while avoiding entering into a military conflict with Moscow. The conflict in Ukraine has led to a review of a principle established decades ago in German arms export policy: that of not sending weapons to a war fought between two countries. Thus, Berlin has supplied artillery and anti-aircraft defense pieces to kyiv. In turn, Germany has replaced some 138 Soviet-era tanks that the Czech Republic, Greece, Slovakia and Slovenia have sent to Ukraine with refurbished German tanks. Despite this, the continuous complaints of the successive Ukrainian ambassadors in Berlin could not be avoided, who always asking for more help and faster deliveries, have become celebrities. This has been notable in the case of the shipment of modern Leopard 2 tanks, where after strong resistance from military commanders, 18 units were authorized to be exported to kyiv.
Undoubtedly, the export of arms is a field where Germany has not lost credibility. Indeed, it has been the fourth world exporter between 2016 and 2020, with three main recipients: South Korea, Algeria and Egypt. In particular, Berlin has maintained its leadership in the naval industry, being world leaders in conventional submarines, such as those built by the company Thyssenkrupp Maritime Systems Gmbh, which are exported to nations such as Israel, Turkey and Egypt. With the 100 billion euro injection announced by Scholz, Berlin is likely to seek to energize its already competitive defense industry.
For Scholz, the transatlantic alliance is and will continue to be vital to address the risks to European security caused by Vladimir Putin, but it is important that Germany becomes a credible military power in the eyes of the US. As the chancellor has written German: “The Germans intend to become the guarantor of European security, as their allies expect it to be.”
*Specialist in International Relations.
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