2023-06-04 10:42:34
September 23 is the deadline for a new government to be formed in Spain. If not, the general elections will be repeated. The results of July 23 augur an intense summer of negotiations except that, unexpected surprise that the surveys do not observe, there is a more than clear victory of one of the two main parties: PSOE or PP.
The most logical thing is that both have to negotiate their support to the right and to the left, making balances of different colors with the regionalist, nationalist and pro-independence parties that will appear again in the Cortes.
Until the formation of the new Government, legislative activity will rest. For better and for worse. Up to 216 propositions and bills that were ready to be voted on or were lying fallow in various committees remain on hold, not to say expired. Among them -on the Congress website, all the details-, four examples:
Measures to facilitate the subrogation and novation of variable rate to fixed rate home loans. Presented by Podemos
Law for the protection of dconstitutional rights of workers. Presented by Vox.
Law for the improvement of protection of living organ donors for subsequent transplantation. Presented by the PSOE.
Law of modification of the royal decree-law 29/2021, of December 21, by which urgent measures are adopted in the energy field for the promotion of electric mobility, self-consumption and the deployment of renewables, to implement the agility of the conversion processes of vehicles with combustion engines into vehicles with electric battery or fuel cell engines, retrofit. Presented by the PP.
In a country where there is feverish legislative activity, the Writers of the Official State Gazette (BOE) will rest. So will the local bulletins and the autonomies that passed through the polls until the constitution of their respective consistories and parliaments. It will be a brief bureaucratic pause before the 15th legislature of democracy begins.
noise and promises
There will be a lot of noise, excessive disqualifications and crazy financial promises. The scarecrows of the past will be revived. The campaigns serve so that each party portrays itself for the best or the worst. Attention to the debate on the four-day working day, the creation of a universal salary and, who knows, whether to give away tickets to buy pipes or popcorn at the cinema, that we will get to everything.
The macroeconomic data will be read at the interest of each one. They can be looked at in isolation or from an evolution. In the case of Pedro Sánchez, there will be two determining dates for any comparison. On June 2, 2018, when he was sworn in as president after winning the motion of no confidence against Mariano Rajoy, and on January 7, 2020. On the latter date, he was sworn in as president of the 14th legislature after the last general elections and gaining support necessary.
Sánchez it will use the benevolence offered by the improving economic situation after Spain has overcome the pandemic and is facing the consequences of the war in Ukraine. He will model his speech defending that Spain is the country with the lowest inflation rate in its environment and that it has managed to maintain social peace thanks to increased spending, which has raised the debt to 115% of GDP. Tax increases, on his program, have been necessary to justify the post-pandemic world. The European aid that has served to push this acceleration will fly over the economic terrain. It remains to be seen how it will stand out from the economic program proposed by its current government partners, whether they are called Unidas Podemos, Sumar or Sumar Podemos.
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The PP of Alberto Núñez Feijóo will embrace another speech. He will use the example of fiscal policies in Madrid and Andalusia, to talk about a missed opportunity. He will defend the need to effectively manage public spending and reduce taxes to encourage consumption and private investment. He will take advantage of the terrible relationship that Sánchez has developed with the business establishment to present himself as the pro-business and pro-autonomous candidate. He will extend an open hand to carry out structural reforms in the future. And, populism is no stranger to anyone, it will also make opportunistic promises and invent subsidies.
It may also be that in these elections, a majority of citizens do not vote looking at the pocket or the state of the economy. On July 23, there will be citizens who vote thinking about the law of only yes is yes, about the trans law or concerned about citizen security. There will also be those who will vote paying attention to the styles of the candidates, the confidence they convey or the arrogance they unwittingly give off.
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