2023-06-08 23:09:30
In mid-May, before their annual meeting, the Economics Circle He published an opinion note in which he demanded a consensus in the face of the “stagnation” of the Catalan and Spanish economy. The note, which was released before the municipal and regional elections on May 28, insisted on the the need to abandon the political tension. The electoral campaign, however, intensified what has been the political debate in Spain, which has very little debate and much proclamation of catchy slogans and slogans to discredit the adversary more than to convince the electorate with arguments. The 23J race runs the risk of falling into the same simplistic reduction and leaving aside issues that fully affect citizens, such as the economic situation.
One of the strengths of the strategy of Pedro Sanchez es get out of the economic measures approved by your Government that have managed to overcome the crisis, first of the covid and after the war in Ukraine. Indeed, Spain currently presents good economic indicatorsespecially in terms of employment growth (20.8 million active workers in May) and some actions by the coalition government have mitigated the negative effects of the international situation (the social shield during the pandemic or the cap on the price of gas to stop the escalation of energy, to give two examples).
However, there are enough uncertainties so as not to say that the Spanish economy is safe from relapses. Without going any further, the Eurostat statistical office confirmed this Thursday that the euro zone entered a technical recession by chaining two consecutive negative quarters, dragged down by Germany. It is still a technicality, since we are talking about -0.1%, and to speak of an economic recession itself, there must be a sustained drop in activity and employment, something that does not occur in the euro zone and less so in Spain . But you do see a deceleration of GDP; that inflationalthough downward, is still well above the 2% target, and that it is taken for granted that the European Central Bank will continue with its monetary policy of raise interest rates. A cocktail that in all probability will affect consumption capacity and public spending.
Returning to the note from the Cercle, which warned of the “stagnation” in the standard of living (according to the convergence of GDP per capita with Europe since the year 2000), Businessmen lower the triumphalism of the Government about the economic situation of the country. And neither does he Ibex seems to corroborate this bonanza, as noted Martí Saballs Pons in an article in this newspaper, in which he explained that Sánchez is the only president in whose mandate the evolution of the Spanish selective is negative. The Government has sometimes adopted a discourse against large companies, forgetting their role as an economic engine.
In the coming days, the electoral candidates will ignore these shadows to divert attention towards populist measures that imply spending commitments with a very hypothetical social return or in generate political noise with patriotic proclamations and half-truths who appeal to vote with emotion and not with reason. A banal confrontation that impoverishes the debate, which tiptoes over the need for rational management of spending, deficit and debt and that he misses the opportunity to talk about what really affects people.
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