2023-06-13 19:52:27
After more than seven months without a head of state or even an executive, Lebanon is still desperately looking for a scenario to end the crisis, the first step before implementing the reforms necessary to pull the country out of the economic and financial slump in which it is dived since 2019.
Negotiations are accelerating to find a successor to Christian President Michel Aoun, whose term has ended October 31, 2022. Until today, eleven electoral sessions in Parliament have not been enough to bring out a name, for lack of a clear majority and of agreement between Hezbollah and its adversaries. The vacancy at the head of state is even double: in the absence of a government, the outgoing Prime Minister, the Sunni Najib Mikati, has been handling current affairs since May 2022.
Sleiman Frangié, a personal friend of Bashar Al Assad
Two names settle in the political discussion, before the twelfth parliamentary session convened this Wednesday, June 14 in Beirut. The first, Sleiman Frangié, received support in March from the Shiite Hezbollah-Amal tandem. This former Maronite Christian minister comes from a tragic lineage: in 1978, almost all of his family was murdered by the Christian militia of the Lebanese Forces. “He is the miracle child. He survived this massacre because he slept that day at his grandfather’s house. His life was marked by this tragedy but that did not prevent him from emerging as a traditional political leader, explains political scientist Karim Bitar. It is an unfailing support of Hezbollah which does not carry a reforming vision. »
But Sleiman Frangié, whose grandfather led Lebanon from 1970 to 1976, is also close to Damascus, and a childhood friend of Syrian President Bashar Al Assad whom he met again in mid-April. He was also presented, in Beirut and by observers, as the candidate of France, which Paris denies. According to Karim Bitar, this scenario fell short. « The French attempt with the agreement of Riyadh to impose Frangieh in return for a pro-Saudi prime minister quickly came up against an outcry from the Christian parties who deemed this unacceptable”deciphers the expert, who sees in it the sign of a deep rupture between the pro-Iranian Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement (CPL, aouniste), linked since 2006 by an agreement “of mutual understanding”.
Jihad Azour, a reforming technician
The Christian parties and the Aounist camp, led by the former head of diplomacy and son-in-law of Michel Aoun, Gebran Bassil, support former finance minister and regional executive of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Jihad Azour. ” It is a good technician, who could put in place essential reforms without alienating traditional political forces. His past at the IMF is an asset for quickly mobilizing the Gulf countries, Westerners and donors who will have to contribute to getting the economy back on its feet.”, believes Karim Bitar. Neither of the two candidates can justify a real Christian popular base, but the vast union of parties, essentially Christians, hostile to Sleiman Frangié is a first.
The chances of seeing one of the two names pass this Wednesday are low, in particular because of the necessary quorum. And external pressures are intensifying on Beirut. Emmanuel Macron, who received the influential Lebanese Maronite patriarch Bechara Raï on May 30, appointed his former head of diplomacy on June 7. Jean-Yves Le Drian “personal envoy” in Libanwhere he is expected to go next week. “His appointment is perhaps a way for Emmanuel Macron to take note of the failure of the initiative which consisted in pushing Sleiman Frangié and a reformist prime minister close to the Saudis and to consider a plan B, believes Karim Bitar. It makes perfect sense, because Jean-Yves Le Drian has been following the file for many years and has very good relations with the Gulf powers, stakeholders. »
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A single-member ballot with several rounds
– The Lebanese presidential election is an election by indirect and secret suffrage.
– The electoral college is made up of the 128 members of the Chamber of Deputies.
– For a vote to take place, two thirds of the deputies – 86 elected – must be present.
– The president is elected by a uninominal ballot in several rounds. To win in the first round, a candidate must obtain the qualified majority of the votes of two thirds of the deputies.
– From the second round, the candidate must only obtain the votes of the absolute majority, ie 65 votes. As many sessions are organized as necessary until a candidate succeeds.
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