2023-06-18 23:39:22
by Massimo Gaggi
The political scientist: «For now, limited results. The base in Cuba is a more serious obstacle than the spy balloon. The US would like the Chinese leader in San Francisco in November”
«Restoring a minimum of US-China cooperation is a complex task, delayed by the crisis of the Chinese balloon shot down on the United States: a very televised crisis which has delayed the resumption of dialogue. In Beijing, Secretary of State Antony Blinken will obtain limited results, but the real objective of the mission is to better prepare for the next meetings between Biden and Xi Jinping: the only moment in which relations between the two powers can really change”.
The political scientist Ian Bremmer, founder and head of Eurasia, has no great illusions about the results of the meetings that Blinken is having in Beijing with Foreign Minister Qin Gang: «I would be surprised if a normalization of military relations were achieved. The objective, for now, is above all to put an end to the escalation of provocations in the air and at sea in recent months: crisis management mechanisms must be created to prevent an accident from turning, due to an uncontrollable chain of events, into conflict”.
Since Nancy Pelosi, then speaker of the House, went to Taiwan, the Chinese have systematically rejected all requests for meetings between the military leaders and defense ministers of the two countries. Will it change now?
«The tension on the military front has various origins. The main political cause was certainly Pelosi’s trip, seen as an affront. But the Chinese also know that Biden tried, in vain, to avoid that mission. However, from Beijing’s point of view, there are other factors that weigh: the indirect sanctions that have also hit Chinese military exponents for the (non-military) aid given to Russia, the feeling of encirclement that comes from the strengthening of the US military in the Far East and from greater military integration with the allies in the area, from Japan to Korea, the Philippines down to Australia. But, above all, Beijing fears the consequences of the embargo on microchips: the most advanced semiconductors that it can no longer receive are essential for its most advanced technological industries and on the military front”.
Why does he define the spy balloon crisis as a television crisis? And didn’t the discovery of a Chinese listening base in Cuba risk derailing this second attempt to resume dialogue?
“Those are low-tech balloons, far less powerful than observation satellites. They have only been tested to have a back up should those satellites be blinded in a future conflict. The base in Cuba represents a more serious threat, also because in that area the Americans are testing their hypersonic missiles and F-22 fighters. But it is a relative threat: Washington has unchallenged dominance of electronic security and monitoring systems, they have very little to fear in this field”.
So Biden never considered stopping Blinken for the second time.
«Not only did he not stop him in Cuba, but he also took care to minimize the balloon incident. To be honest, already in February the president wanted to get over it and start Blinken anyway, but with days of television images and, then, the shooting down, it became impossible. That visit was important: the secretary of state was also to meet Xi Jinping. This time it seems not. However, there will be some results, also thanks to the preparatory work done by the head of the CIA William Burns with his visit to Beijing, which remained secret for a long time, and with the recent 12-hour meeting in Vienna between Biden’s adviser for national security, Jake Sullivan, and Wang Yi, head of the Chinese Communist Party for international relations, hierarchically superior to the Foreign Minister».
Spotlight on the New Delhi G20 in September, then?
«There is still a lot of diplomatic work to be done: I think the Apec summit in November hosted by the USA will be more productive. The attempt is to get Xi Jinping to come to San Francisco, where Biden will stay for two days. That could be the turning point.”
June 18, 2023 (change June 18, 2023 | 23:39)
© Time.News
#turning #point #goal #prepare #summit #Biden #time.news