2023-06-23 04:21:50
This is what the preliminary version of an unprecedented study released this Thursday, 22, by the Institute of Applied Economic Research (Ipea) points out.
Murders related to drug trafficking reduce the life expectancy of the population of Rio de Janeiro by 7.4 months, almost double the impact observed in the rest of the country (4.2 months). In São Paulo, the decrease is about three days, a rate well below the average.
This is what the preliminary version of an unprecedented study published this Thursday, 22, by the Institute of Applied Economic Research (Ipea) points out. The projections were presented at an event held in Belém, Pará.
“While in São Paulo each individual loses a few days of life expectancy at birth, in Rio de Janeiro, each person lives an average of 7.4 months less due to the war on drugs”, points out the study. In Brazil, the decrease in life expectancy is, on average, 4.2 months.
According to the author of the research, Ipea economist and adviser to the Brazilian Public Security Forum Daniel Cerqueira, the findings are directly related to the effects of the “war on drugs” policy.
“The paradox is that, when the police apply resources to prohibit the drug, the price of the drug in the short term increases, causing traffickers’ income to increase and this means that there are incentives for traffickers to perpetuate themselves in the market,” he said.
The study points out that not only in Rio de Janeiro, but also in other states, “heavily armed groups of drug traffickers dominate territories to keep the business running”. Among the main criminal organizations are the Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC), from São Paulo, and the Comando Vermelho (CV), from Rio.
The murders, according to the study, normally occur due to market disputes or even the settlement of scores, but even those who are not related to drug trafficking are affected. “Policemen die, policemen die, innocents die and the whole of society is terrified, fearful of having its life prematurely lost in the midst of these confrontations”, says the study.
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The study’s projections are based on the criminal rates of 2017. At the time, Brazilian life expectancy was 76 years, according to data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) – in more recent years, this indicator has approached 77 years old, but the impact of the pandemic is still unclear.
The comparison presented in the research focuses mainly on Rio, where almost half of the murders are related to drug trafficking, and in São Paulo, where approximately three out of every ten homicides have this profile – the national average is 34%. Nine out of ten victims are men, most aged between 15 and 40.
Population lost 1.1 million potential years of life, study finds
The study points out that, in 2017 alone, 1.1 million years of potential life were lost by the Brazilian population, 10% of which in Rio de Janeiro (153,000). In São Paulo, 64,000 years were lost. “If a 20-year-old died, taking into account that the life expectancy for him was 80 years, 60 potential years were lost”, exemplified Cerqueira.
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According to the study, entitled “Cost of Social Welfare of Homicides Related to Drug Prohibition in Brazil”, homicides attributed to drug trafficking generate an annual welfare cost of around R$ 50 billion per year, or 0.77% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The calculation takes into account not only the potential income that the victim could generate, but the costs associated with spending to fight crime.
To make the estimate, Cerqueira used as a basis references such as the economic theory of illegal markets, in addition to other references in the area. “The drug causes problems, it affects entire families”, said the researcher. “But we have to attack with harm reduction policies, health policies.”
*Reporter traveled to Belém at the invitation of the Brazilian Public Security Forum
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