2023-06-25 11:14:26
Claudio Borio is Chief Economist at the Bank for International Settlements. Image: picture alliance
Claudio Borio, the chief economist at the Bank for International Settlements, talks about the false hope of falling inflation rates, the role of governments – and lessons from the incorrect forecasts for the theory of inflation.
Mr Borio, inflation rates are falling in many parts of the world right now. Is the worst of inflation over?
As we write in our annual report, we’ve pocketed the “easy gains” in reducing inflation – in the sense that some of the factors that drove inflation rates up have lost some of their influence. Commodity prices, which had risen sharply, are falling again. The delivery bottlenecks in the wake of the corona pandemic are dissolving.
In addition, so-called statistical base effects are noticeable, which automatically cause the growth rates to be lower over the course of the year. Headline inflation has peaked and is now falling. Core inflation – which measures inflation without sharply fluctuating prices such as those for energy and food – is more persistent. It has stabilized at an elevated level or is even rising. Overall, inflation is far too high. The next phase of the fight against inflation will be more difficult and will require all efforts.
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