2023-06-26 07:20:42
by Fabrizio Dragosei
The situation in Russia after the Wagner uprising. The “warlords” Shoigu and Gerasimov, Prigozhin’s main targets, hang in the balance: they seem to have disappeared from the scene. But replacing them is not easy: they have been loyal to the president for years
When Prigozhin accused senior military leaders of having ordered the bombing of his men on Friday, the Defense Ministry hastened to issue a statement denying the incident. But then, while events were pressing and it almost seemed that the Wagnerians could come to attack Moscow, there was no more news of the high military poppies. Putin spoke to the nation on television on Saturday morning, but Prigozhin’s two great enemies have completely disappeared from the political scene.
And from what we have seen, it seems that they have not even been able to organize an adequate mobilization of men and means to stop the column of mercenaries which has traveled almost 800 kilometers towards the capital. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov never heard each other while the fate of the country was being decided. Shoigu then reappeared on Monday 26, visiting the Russian troops engaged in the war in Ukraine.
Technical meeting
Now it is said (above all Prigozhin’s friends claim) that they are both on the starting foot, but there is not the slightest official confirmation. There was a technical meeting at the Defense Summit on Saturday to talk about the progress of the “special operation” in Ukraine, but nothing leaked. For the rest, absolute emptiness.
Of course, they could be replaced, and not just to meet the demands made loudly by the head of Wagner. There is no doubt that in all these months of war and permanent conflicts with the private militia of Putin’s ex-cook, they have not given their best. The only real success this year was the conquest of Bakhmut, achieved not by regular troops but by mercenaries.
The problem is that both enjoy the trust of the head of state and have long-established ties with him. Shoigu, the current defense chief, has been in the government since 1991, certainly the longest-serving of the top state bureaucrats. He was entrusted with responsibility for civil defense by then President Yeltsin, who had just taken office as president of a Russia that was still part of the Soviet Union. He remained in his post with Putin who in 2012 moved him to Defense.
Shoigu is a particular character, a great collector of Japanese swords and Aztec sacrificial knives. Shy and very loyal to the Chief, he is a teetotaler, which is not exactly widespread in Russia. He was one of the most ardent supporters of the start of the “operation” in Ukraine and we owe him the unfounded hopes of resolving the issue in a few days with the occupation of Kiev and the removal of President Zelensky. Then, in all these months, no trace of successes can be found that can be attributed to his brilliant insights. He changed the war operations manager several times but without great results. Rumors have begun to circulate about possible candidates for his chair. The most accredited is Aleksej Dyumin, governor of Tula, Putin’s former personal assistant and, according to a site linked to the secret services, Prigozhin’s almost partner in Wagner: for this reason he would have played an important role in defusing the crisis.
Career soldier
Gerasimov, the Chief of Staff, is a career soldier who comes from the Tartar republic and tanks. He is most famous for explaining the principles of hybrid warfare in his 2013 speech. That is, the use of other tools in addition to the traditional ones: means of communication, disinformation, exploitation of the web, attack on civilian infrastructures of the enemy. We owe the general the brilliant operation thanks to which Russia conquered the Crimea in 2014 by sending the so-called little green men, soldiers without identification badges who left the Ukrainians dumbfounded. He too is responsible for the initial failures of the operations launched in February last year. Since January of this year, he has also been in direct command of the entire “operation” in Ukraine. But with him at the helm instead of General Surovikin, things have not changed much.
June 26, 2023 (change June 26, 2023 | 08:38)
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