FROM OUR CORRESPONDENT
LONDON – After the elections in Scotland, a new referendum on independence closer?
Not a question of if, but of when, said the Scottish premier Nicola Sturgeon about an independence referendum. But the fact that his nationalist party missed the goal of an absolute majority in last week’s elections actually makes the push for voting less powerful. It is true that, by adding the Green seats, there is a pro-independence majority in the Edinburgh parliament, but in London they have taken note of the fact that Sturgeon has not obtained a full popular mandate on her own.
What will Nicola Sturgeon do now?
The Scottish premier herself said that at the moment the priority to get out of the pandemic and therefore the question of independence must be posed at the right time: but she did not rule out the possibility of presenting a law on a new referendum in Parliament already at the beginning of the year. next one. The commitment of the nationalist party of arrive at a popular consultation by the end of 2023.
Cosa far Boris Johnson?
British Prime Minister the one who it must authorize the holding of a possible referendum on independence in Scotland: and Johnson repeats that not the case. In recent days, the London government has avoided opposing a firm no, saying rather that not the moment and that we need to focus on the pandemic and the reconstruction of the country.
Could Scotland act unilaterally?
Nicola Sturgeon has always said that he does not intend to follow the Catalan path of a unilateral referendum and that he wants to arrive at a consultation that has full legality, even in the eyes of the international community. For this reason, it is willing to challenge the London government even before the Supreme Court.
What will Johnson’s strategy be?
The British Prime Minister will try to avoid a showdown in court, which would be counterproductive: rather, he will launch large spending programs and public interventions in Scotland, to convince public opinion of the goodness of the Union.
What is the orientation of the Scots?
Polls show that there is not a majority of public opinion in favor of a new referendum, much less in favor of independence. The success of the national vaccination campaign has deflated the sails of independence.
What should we expect in the near future?
We are therefore heading towards a long war of attrition, which actually benefits both Johnson and Sturgeon. The British Prime Minister has an interest in diluting the issue over time, but also the Scottish Prime Minister is aware that a quick referendum would probably result in a defeat for the separatists. So we will see moves and counter-moves: but to arrive at the final showdown it will take years.
May 10, 2021 (change May 10, 2021 | 14:42)
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