2023-06-26 12:12:44
For years, the paramilitary organization-Wagner company is considered the armed arm of Moscow abroad, mainly in Syria and many African countries. This status is now in question due to the actions of its leader.
After a spectacular stand that brought his forces less than 400 kilometers from Moscow, his retreat and his exile in Belarus, Yevgeny Prigozhin’s relationship with Vladimir Putin is pending redefinition.
What will now become of Wagner’s business in the foreign theatres, where the organization excels in exploiting local resourcesin protecting governments, in cyberwarfare and in brutal warfare?
“The biggest implications of the episode may be felt in the Middle East and Africa,” wrote Rob Lee of the Foreign Policy Research Institute on Twitter, stressing that “a short-term compromise” is different from a “long-term solution.”
Moscow needs Wagner to maintain its position in the areas where it is of primary concern the undermining of Western influence.
But “Wagner has a strong presence in Africa (…). Will the Kremlin allow these activities to continue if Prigozhin and Wagner are based in Belarus?”
A question that no analyst can answer with certainty. “It is a mystery. It depends on how the Russian authorities want to divide what is happening in Africa and what is happening elsewhere,” summarizes American expert Michael Shurkin of 14°North Strategies specializing in Africa.
Ultimately, “Russia may consider what Wagner is doing in Africa worth continuing because it serves Russian interests,” he comments.
One thing is certain: Prigozhin and Putin discussed this matter before reaching the agreement. Because Wagner depends on the Russian Ministry of Defense, which provides it soldiers, material and weapons in the theaters of its activities. And Moscow needs Wagner to maintain its position in these troubled zones where its main concern is undermining Western influence.
At Syriaaccording to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Wagner’s mercenaries – from Russia, former Soviet republics and Syria – they acted as “special forces” in the theater of war operations on the side of the Kremlin army since 2015. Today, they remain present, in smaller numbers, near the oil wells, as well as in the provinces of Hama and Lattakia.
In Africaare present in Libya, Sudan and Mozambique. And they are at the forefront of Yesdespite the denials of the junta that speaks of “Russian trainers”, as well as in the Central African Republic, where a Wagner executive manages the security of President Faustin-Arkans Tuadera.
Wagner supplies Russia with “gold and ores from Sudan, Central African Republic and Mali. Putin needs them to maintain his economy, which is on mechanical support,” according to a European military source.
The UN’s independent expert on human rights in the Central African Republic accused the army and its Russian allies of atrocities in February. The European Union then announced new sanctions against Wagner.
On Friday, French President Emmanuel Macron accused Russia of being a “force to destabilize Africa, through private mercenary armies that come to commit extortion and atrocities against the civilian population.”
“It takes time for the fog to clear”
The continuation will depend on the negotiations between Putin and Prigozhin, with the president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, as an intermediary.
“There seems to be a kind of fluidity and a wait-and-see attitude in Bangui and Bamako,” notes Maxime Odiné of the Institut de Recherche Stratégique de l’Ecole Militaire (IRSEM) in Paris, adding that websites related to the Prigozin Nebula have blocked, but only in Russia.
“The transfer of huge shares of privileged power to Wagner to act where the Russian state does not want to interfere, has given it much more leeway than expected“, he emphasizes.
“I imagine that during the talks the issue of what will happen in the future with Wagner’s external activities was brought up on the table. Prigozhin’s network has become the dominant factor in Russian presence in sub-Saharan Africa in recent years. The fragile balance between Russian state and non-state actors on the African continent will experience major reshuffles.”
But it takes time for the fog to clear.
“Wagner had a certain degree of freedom of movement in her plans for Africa. “Without cooperation with the Russian Ministry of Defense, I don’t see how the organization-company can continue to operate,” says Pauline Bax, deputy director of the International Crisis Group’s Africa Program.
However, Putinhe can’t send Russian soldiers in place of Wagner. I do not imagine that he will immediately withdraw from the African continent.”
Source: APE-AFP
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