2023-06-26 23:37:53
With an oscillation of less than three cents between minimum (R$ 4.7584) and maximum (R$ 4.7848), the currency ended the day quoted at R$ 4.7667
The spot dollar started the week at a low in the domestic exchange market, following the weakening wave of the US currency abroad, amid fears of a stronger slowdown in the global economy. With an oscillation of less than three cents between minimum (R$ 4.7584) and maximum (R$ 4.7848), the currency ended the day quoted at R$ 4.7667, down 0.23%, interrupting a sequence of two slightly higher trading sessions. In June, the spot dollar has already accumulated losses of 6.04%.
According to operators, caution set the tone for negotiations, with investors only making fine adjustments to positions in anticipation of this week’s busy domestic agenda. The main thermometer of the appetite for business, the dollar futures for July turned weak, just above US$ 10 billion. The volume traded should grow over the next few days, both due to the relevant events and the proximity of the rollover of positions and the technical dispute for the formation of the last Ptax of June, on Friday, 30th.
There is great expectation for the release tomorrow, the 27th, of the minutes of the Copom meeting last week, when the Selic rate was maintained at 13.75% per annum in a statement considered harsh. A relevant wing of the market expects the collegiate to adopt a milder tone in the minutes, which may give even more strength to the expectation of a reduction in the basic rate in August. This Tuesday, the IPCA-15 for June will also be released, which should show a sharp deceleration, from 0.51% to 0.03%, according to the median of the Broadcast Projections survey.
“The behavior of the foreign exchange market today was one of caution. Investors are waiting for the tone of the Copom minutes tomorrow and whether or not the Central Bank will give some signal about the beginning of the Selic downward cycle”, says economist Cristiane Quartaroli, from Banco Ourinvest.
On Thursday, the 29th, the agenda also includes the Quarterly Inflation Report (RTI) and the meeting of the National Monetary Council (CMN) to define inflation targets. It is an easy figure among economists to assess that maintaining a target of 3% will be beneficial for anchoring expectations and will make the Central Bank more comfortable to start the cycle of monetary easing in August. That’s even if the goal is no longer defined for the calendar year and becomes continuous.
Trade balance data released today reinforce analysts’ reading that the inflow of trade, mainly due to agribusiness exports, has contributed to the recent appreciation of the real. There is also an expectation of financial flow with the issuance by Petrobras of 10-year bonds. According to sources, the company raised US$ 1.25 billion, from a demand of more than US$ 5 billion.
According to the Foreign Trade Secretariat of the Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services (MDIC), the balance recorded a surplus of US$ 1.374 billion in the fourth week of June (19th to 25th). In the month, the accumulated surplus is US$ 8.081 billion and in the year, US$ 43.003 billion.
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Abroad, the DXY index – which measures the performance of the dollar against a basket of six strong currencies – operated in a slight fall throughout the day, between 102,600 and 102,800 points. There was some apprehension due to the military crisis in Russia, with a mercenary group insurrection circumvented by Moscow over the weekend. The US currency fell against most emerging currencies and commodity exporting countries. Among Latin American currencies, the Colombian peso and the real stand out.
“The local market worked on a back burner today, following abroad. The fact is that the concern with a stronger deceleration of the American economy has been gaining strength in recent days, which weakens the dollar and helps sustain the real”, says the chief economist at Veedha Investimentos, Camila Abdelmalack, noting that this This week, the European Central Bank (ECB) is holding an event that will be attended by the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, whose statements could affect the dollar globally.
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