Ibovespa falls 0.61%, to 117.5 thousand points, despite Copom minutes and gain in NY By Estadão Content

2023-06-28 10:00:30

© Reuters. Ibovespa falls 0.61%, to 117.5 thousand points, despite Copom minutes and gain in NY

The softness of the Copom and the positive performance of the indices in New York (+1.15%, +1.65%) were not enough to prevent the second day of retreat of the , in a session in which Vale (BVMF:) (ON +1.20%) was the main exception among the shares with the greatest weight in the B3 benchmark (BVMF:). However, the index managed to moderate losses compared to the beginning of the afternoon and closed down 0.61%, at 117,522.87 points, between a minimum of 116,561.04 and a maximum of 119,211.58, after opening at 118,246.17 points.

The financial turnover advanced this Tuesday, to R$ 25.3 billion. In the week, the Ibovespa accumulates a loss of 1.22% in these first two sessions, placing the gains for the month at 8.48%. In the year, the index rises 7.10%.

With the commodity down more than 2% at the end of the commodity sessions in London () and New York (WTI), Petrobras (BVMF:) (ON and PN) returned Monday’s positive sign, today at a low of 0, 87% and 0.78%, respectively, smoothed over the course of the afternoon, which contributed to limit the Ibovespa’s negative signal in the session. Among the big banks, losses reached 1.84% (BB (BVMF:) ON) at the end of the day, with Bradesco (BVMF:) PN managing a slight gain of 0.18%.

At the top of the Ibovespa, the meatpackers Minerva (BVMF:) (+3.98%) and JBS (BVMF:) (+2.46%) stand out, with expectations more favorable to demand from China, after the Asian country released the entry of 40 thousand tons that were held in ports. Alongside refrigerators, Gol (BVMF:) also stands out, up 3.26% on Tuesday. In the opposite corner, Alpargatas (BVMF:) (-7.76%), Assaí (BVMF:)(-5.83%) and Petz (BVMF:) (-5.42%).

“The day was positive for the New York stock exchanges, with indexes showing resilience of American economic activity, today with the knowledge of confidence data, which surprised positively, above expectations, as well as those of sales and prices of residences – which , on the other hand, maintain a difficult scenario for monetary policy, with the possibility of an increase in interest rates in the United States”, says Rodrigo Ashikawa, economist at Principal Claritas.

“Here, the Copom minutes came less harsh than last week’s statement, indicating a greater possibility of starting the cut cycle in August. But, for the start of cuts, we expect something very cautious, of 0.25 percentage point , considering some cores still high for inflation and the need to anchor expectations for the long term, and an economic activity that continues to surprise positively, at the margin”, he adds.

The reading for June, released this morning as well as the Copom minutes, also contributed to the perspective that a first Selic cut could come in August, and not in September as the BC committee’s communiqué last week – without reference to the reduction of the basic interest rate – seemed to suggest.

“Services, underlying services and the average of the cores cooled down in the accumulated of the last 12 months. And the diffusion index – which shows the percentage of items that increased in prices in the month – had a drop, from 64% in May to 51% in June “, observes in a note Gustavo Sung, chief economist at Suno Research. In June, the IPCA-15 had a slight increase of 0.04%, after an advance of 0.51% in the previous month.

In the accumulated in 12 months, the reading went from 4.07% in May to 3.40% in June, the smallest variation since September 2020, according to Andréa Angelo, inflation strategist at Warren Rena. “The deceleration in the monthly reading, from 0.51% to 0.04%, is largely due to the cooling in fuels and food: together they contribute -0.42 pp, at the margin”, she adds.

As Sung, from Suno, points out, in the current month, six of the nine groups of products and services surveyed recorded price increases, with emphasis on Housing (0.96%), which had an impact of 0.14 percentage points for the IPCA-15 in June, the biggest bullish effect on the index in this morning’s release.

“Our estimate for the IPCA December 2023 is now 4.80%, IPCA which will be at the ‘inflation target ceiling threshold’ for the year, of 4.75% (3.25% target + 1.50 % of upper fluctuation margin)”, indicates in a note Nicola Tingas, chief economist of Acrefi (National Association of Credit, Financing and Investment Institutions).

“This scenario should promote a drop in inflation expectations for 2024 and 2025, contributing to the start of interest rate cuts in August (base scenario) or in September. .25 pp, and a reduction of 0.50 pp at each meeting until the end of the year”, he adds.

For Nova Futura Investimentos, this morning’s minutes are “consistent with a greater slope in the curve, with short interest rates pricing the early start of the cycle, with a cut of 0.25 pp in August, but a higher terminal rate, forecast in section 6 of the minutes, with Copom signaling higher neutral real interest”, points out in a note the chief economist, Nicolas Borsoi.

In the home assessment, the sixth paragraph of the June Copom minutes raises the estimate of a neutral real interest rate, from 4.0% to 4.5%. The neutral rate corresponds to an interest rate that, theoretically, neither stimulates nor restricts economic activity.