2023-06-28 17:48:24
The scenario of cuts is now a long way off, but prices will not fall for all that. The forecasts for the electricity system for next fall and winter promise to be better than last year, according to the manager of the high voltage network RTE.
Whether for this summer, autumn or next winter, “all the parameters are developing favorably compared to last year” in terms of security of electricity supply, declared Thomas Veyrenc, executive director of the RTE’s strategy, forecasting and evaluation division.
The reasons are multiple: the hydraulic stocks of dams and gas are at “very satisfactory levels”, “renewable energies are developing”, “nuclear is higher” and “electricity consumption is still falling”, listed Thomas Veyrenc during a press briefing.
“No risk in the fall”
The situation is therefore very different from that which France experienced in 2022 when it had to face a “triple crisis”, between European tensions over gas supply, drought on the dams and the discovery of corrosion in the reactors. nuclear, which fueled fears of winter power shortages, which were eventually averted. This time in 2023, RTE does not identify “no specific risk in the fall”. As for winter, “the situation is significantly more favorable” than in 2022, even if it “is not completely back to normal”.
“Sobriety actions” therefore remain “essential” to reduce consumption and save hydraulic and gas stocks, underlined RTE, while the government has just launched season 2 of its sobriety plan to maintain -10% objective of reducing energy consumption, all year round.
After the “significant” fall in winter (-9%), consumption continues to fall from -7% to -8% “in spring” compared to the reference period 2014-2019, corrected for climate data, according to TEN. “This is good news which shows that new habits are taking hold in our energy consumption,” Energy Transition Minister Agnès Pannier-Runacher told AFP.
After the heating this winter, the French are also encouraged this summer not to activate the air conditioning below 26 degrees outside. “Each degree less on the air conditioning saves 700 MW, the equivalent of the consumption of a city like Toulouse”, illustrated Jean-Paul Roubin, executive director customers and operation of the electrical system of RTE.
Very high prices expected for the end of the year
The production of electrons is picking up again, and with it, France has once again become an “exporter of electricity to the European market” since the start of the year. This should continue “over the next few months”, while it had been a net importer for almost all of 2022.
Result: electricity prices for France on the spot electricity markets (for the next day) are significantly lower – 77 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) – than in our neighbors, such as Germany (81 euros) or Italy (105 euros).
The situation of the futures markets (delivery this winter in the 1st quarter of 2024) is however more complex. Prices are lower than those of 2022 but still remain very high, evolving “over the past few weeks and months, between 200, 250 euros and 400 euros per MWh, while in neighboring European countries, they are more like 200 euros” , observes Thomas Veyrenc.
For RTE, this is a sign that “a certain number of market players have an overly pessimistic view of the risk analysis” of supply in France. “Concerns” which nevertheless “seem disproportionate to the real risks”, insists executive director of the strategy, forecasting and evaluation division of RTE. “We are certain that nuclear is better in 2023 than in 2022 and that the risk is lower,” he told AFP.
France should thus be able to count on nuclear production in line with RTE’s expectations, “in the middle of the range, or even a little below” the forecast of 300-330 TWh presented by EDF. The availability of the nuclear fleet should reach “between 45 and 50 GW” in January 2024, according to Thomas Veyrenc. This is “above the maximum of last winter” 2022.
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