Rapid Construction of Camp in Belarus Raises Questions about Wagner Forces
A satellite image captured on Friday has revealed the quick construction of a camp at an abandoned base in Belarus, raising speculation about its purpose. Local media reports and expert analysis suggest that the camp may have been built to house incoming Wagner forces after their mutiny and subsequent withdrawal from Russia. However, The Washington Post was unable to independently verify these reports, and caution has been advised about making conclusions regarding the camp’s purpose.
According to a review of satellite imagery provided to The Post by Planet Labs, more than 250 new tents, each measuring about 16 feet wide and 36 feet long, were assembled within one week at an abandoned military base near the village of Tsel in central Belarus. This sudden increase in structures has caught the attention of experts and observers.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko announced on Tuesday that he had offered part of an abandoned military base to the Wagner forces for housing, indicating that some fighters were likely to move with the group’s founder, Yevgeniy Prigozhin. Prigozhin was granted safe passage to Belarus on Saturday as part of a negotiated deal to end the mutiny, but his current whereabouts remain unknown.
Hans Kristensen, director of the nuclear information project at the Federation of American Scientists, described the camp as “a big camping trip,” based on high-resolution satellite images from Friday. This statement further fuels speculation about the purpose of the camp.
The first signs of activity at the site appeared on Monday, and within a day, the number of structures had multiplied to several rows. The base had been vacated by Belarusian forces in 2018, and available visual material since 2011 shows no tents in the area.
Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia nonproliferation program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, believes that the timing supports the view that the tents are linked to Wagner. However, it is still not entirely clear who will occupy the tents.
Reports from a Belarusian media outlet posted on Telegram indicated that residents in the nearby area reported “strange activity” near Tsel. One forestry worker claimed that “50 people from 13 nearby forestries were brought to build a camp for Wagner,” which would include around 1,780 four-bed bunk beds and 400 toilets.
Ruslan Leviev, an analyst from the independent Russian monitoring organization Conflict Intelligence Team, cautioned that mobilized Russian fighters have been training in Belarus since last year, suggesting that the camp could potentially be for them. However, Leviev noted that the Wagner mercenaries themselves are still in occupied territories and have not been moved to Belarus.
Catrina Doxsee, an associate director at the transnational threats project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, also urged caution when dealing with Russia or Wagner due to the level of disinformation and obfuscation often involved.
While the satellite image alone cannot provide much clarity, Kristensen pointed out that if the camp were for a Belarusian military exercise, a significant number of trucks would be expected, but the setup consists primarily of tents.
As the questions surrounding the purpose of the camp persist, further investigation and verification are necessary to determine its true intentions.