2023-06-30 11:03:00
New consequence of the pension reform adopted in March 2023. According to projections from the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) published Thursday, June 30, the active population, which includes people with a job and those who are unemployed, should increase more in France than expected under the influence of this reform, until reaching a peak in 2036.
This is due in particular to the flagship measure of the reform, which consists in raising the age of opening of rights from 62 to 64 years, with a gradual increase in load from September 2023 to reach 64 years in 2030. accompanied by an extension of the minimum duration of long careers, as well as an acceleration of the Touraine reform of 2014, aimed at increasing the contribution period from forty-two to forty-three years for a full pension of here in 2027 instead of 2035″, details INSEE in its consideration of the measures for the calculation of the projections.
A peak of 31.2 million assets in 2036
Because of the reform, the active population will also “increase much more rapidly in the coming years”, explains Yves Jauneau, head of the synthesis and economic situation of the labor market division of INSEE. As a result, the labor force is expected to peak at 31.2 million in 2036 (compared to 30.1 million in 2021). A dynamic that should subsequently slow down to 29.8 million assets in 2070.
By 2070, the active population would still be “increased by around 600,000 people”, compared to projections before the reform, explains Yves Jauneau. The activity rate – ie the ratio between the number of working people and the population as a whole – of 55-69 year olds would therefore be increased by 4.5 points. The effect would be more marked for 60‑64 year olds, for whom the increase in the activity rate would reach 10.9 points. For 65‑69 year olds, the increase in the rate would be less marked with an increase of 0.8 points, and would thus stand in 2070 at 17.8%. “The activity rate of people between 25 and 54 years old is not modified between the two exercises”, specifies the report.
A quarter of working people will be seniors in 2070
Who says increase in activity of seniors, also says mechanical increase in the share of seniors in the active population: the 55 years and over will constitute 24.8% of it by 2070 (compared to 23.4% before the reform) .
This projection exercise, which will feed into the work of the Pensions Orientation Council (COR), is based on a certain number of assumptions established in the 2022 annual report, in particular demographic, including the question of net migration. “This variant was also an opportunity to increase the share of work-study students projected for 15-24 year olds”, specifies INSEE, which has not measured the impact of these forecasts on employment and unemployment, highly dependent on the situation in the years to come and the public policies that will be implemented.
#Pension #reform #working #population