Putin’s storm in the north – this fear paralyzes Kiev’s offensive

2023-07-05 12:40:00

Analyse

War in Ukraine Putin’s storm in the north – this fear paralyzes Kiev’s offensive

Ukrainian troops fire a Soviet-era rocket launcher.

© Serhii Nuzhnenk / Reuters

Kiev believes that Russia has concentrated 180,000 men in the north at Kreminna and Bakhmut. As soon as Kiev sends all troops in the south into battle, these troops could attack in the north.

Kiev’s summer offensive is not going as planned. Colonel Reisner of the Austrian Armed Forces recently described the first phase of the offensive to NTV as a complete failure. The reasons are varied. Ukraine lacks an air force worth mentioning and is massively inferior to the Russians in terms of artillery. In addition, it turned out that the Russian defense positions, which were previously ridiculed by Western experts, are much more efficient than assumed.

Too little for a decision

In addition, the deployment of Ukrainian troops to date has irritated many commentators. When Western military equipment first appeared in the combat area, it was clear that it was far more than just armed reconnaissance of the Russian positions. Too many soldiers were used for this and the losses were too great. On the other hand, there were never enough troops to form a “centre” and force a breakthrough. Such a breakthrough through the Russian positions would always have cost losses in the initial phase, but also offered the chance to be able to maneuver behind the Russians and cut off or even encircle the invaders. As it was, the Ukrainian army stormed ahead, suffered heavy losses, but was only able to push the Russians back 1,000 meters from one trench system to the next. Most of the attacks were repelled and didn’t gain any ground at all.

Columns

Pearls of Kremlin propaganda Kremlin works out new explanation for Wagner uprising – and certifies that Putin committed a crime

03.07.2023

So the question is: what is the bulk of the Ukrainian strategic reserve waiting for? About seven of the twelve newly formed brigades have not yet taken part in the fighting.

threat in the north

Serhiy Cherevaty, spokesman for the Eastern Group of Armed Forces of Ukraine, revealed the secret. He told the RBC Ukraine channel that Russia had concentrated 180,000 men in the north. 50,000 are used at Bachmut. Another 120,000 soldiers are deployed 100 kilometers away near Lyman and Kupjansk. Among them are airborne troops, mechanized brigades, reserve and territorial troops, and special assault and infiltration units like “Storm Z”. Among them are the units of the 1st Guards Tank Army. The number is also startling because it doesn’t count the 25,000 Wagner mercenaries who were recently in the area

About a week after the start of the Ukrainian offensive, the Russians began to take action on various sectors in the north. At Kubiansk and at Kreminna the Russians are advancing under cover of large forest areas. So far, however, with similarly limited successes as the Ukrainian troops. Kiev has so far concentrated its own efforts in the south. Success would be particularly tempting in the Dnieper-Donbass zone, where Ukrainian troops could push all the way to the sea, splitting Russian-held territory in two.

Pressure on Kharkiv

Even before the Ukrainian offensive, however, it was noticeable that the majority of the Russian invasion troops were not in this area, but near Bakhmut and further north. A Ukrainian attack was and is not to be expected here. The area is favorable for the Russians because that is where they have the best logistical connections to their own country. In addition, they are closer to Ukrainian cities, which Kiev must avoid losing at all costs. The fear now is that if Kiev sends its reserves into battle in the south, the Russians could attack in the north with all their might and try to take back from Kiev all the conquests of the Ukrainian Kharkiv offensive. Once engaged in combat, the seven brigades cannot be thrown north to stop the Russians.

Analyse

War in Ukraine Bloody and slow – but after the Wagner mutiny, the Ukrainian offensive is now moving forward

02.07.2023

Waiting for the next game changer

The mere possibility of this offensive neutralizes the Ukrainian attack power. For Kiev, that would be a vicious circle. If this calculus is correct, it is to be feared that the dull dying of the past week will continue. And so Moscow is once again forcing a war on Kiev on Moscow terms, an eternal war of attrition. And this form of war is governed by the law of large numbers. Apparently, unlike last year, Russia already has more soldiers in Ukraine than in Kiev. Ukraine is currently trying to deploy more troops with a new wave of mobilization to improve relations. The Kremlin has indicated that it will initially refrain from further mobilizations. Apparently there are enough volunteers. According to Moscow, more than 130,000 men would have volunteered by 2023. They would currently be trained. If the information is correct, Russia is likely to massively increase its invasion army at the end of the summer. Kiev, on the other hand, hopes to be able to fundamentally change the situation on the ground with F-16 fighter jets and other long-range weapons from the West. Whether these new “game changers” will decide the war remains to be seen.