2023-07-10 06:00:37
For two decades, the question of Ukraine’s entry into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has divided the Allies, divided analysts and even the Ukrainian population. For some, it was natural to respond to Kiev’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations and to follow up on the – ambiguous – promises made at the Bucharest summit in 2008. For others, Ukraine’s membership of the Atlantic Alliance was premature, if not dangerous, and risked fueling the conflict with Russia.
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This second position was for a long time that of France, which, alongside Germany, was opposed to the American desire to initiate a genuine membership process in 2008 and which has since sometimes put forward the idea that ‘a « finlandisation » Ukraine (referring to Finland’s enforced neutrality during the Cold War) would be a reasonable solution.
Shared by many Allies, this approach has long prevailed within NATO. In practice and for lack of consensus in NATO, Ukraine remained this “partner”, recognized as one of the closest, but was not granted a “membership action plan”, the promise of Bucharest remaining a “yes in theory” but a “no in practice”. The granting of “new opportunities” partner status in 2020 (in a motley group comprising Australia, Finland, Georgia, Jordan and Sweden) has not changed this situation.
Prevent the resumption of hostilities
This choice, which could be justified in 2008 in a very different context, now seems outdated. Above all, and this is one of the many strategic mistakes of Vladimir Putin, whose actions pushed kyiv towards NATO, Ukraine has changed. Until 2014, the Ukrainian population was divided and, poll after poll, the majority opposed membership. Today, 91% of Ukrainians say they are in favor of it. The policy of appeasement with regard to Moscow has not borne fruit, quite the contrary, since 2014 Russia has been engaged in a conflict with Ukraine, the scale of which since 2022 has upset the European security architecture. .
The prevention of a conflict between Ukraine and Russia is no longer relevant when the latter has unleashed, alone, the largest conventional war in Europe since 1945. The ongoing accessions of Finland and Sweden or the Moldovan debate shows that gray areas and neutrality are no longer considered acceptable guarantees in the face of the Russian attitude. Militarily, the Ukrainian army is one of the most seasoned in Europe and would therefore be a potential net contributor to NATO security. Finally, joining NATO appears to be the most effective solution to prevent the resumption of hostilities once a ceasefire has been obtained on the ground. It fits in well with the prospect of joining the European Union, the two processes having often gone hand in hand.
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