2023-07-10 20:45:35
The revolt of the mercenaries of the Wagner group in Russia may have derived from destabilization in Africa subsaharan, where they are increasingly present. That is the fear expressed by Spanish officials, and it is one of the arguments that the Government has to pressure NATO to don’t forget the “southern flank” of the Sahel while reinforcing the “eastern flank” of the Ukrainian war. Russia is gaining favor with the countries of the area (such as Mali or the Central African Republic) in their fights against the threat of jihadist groups.
At the Alliance summit this Tuesday and Wednesday in Vilnius (Lithuania), the allies are expected to approve the development of a comprehensive report on security challenges in the Sahel, according to government sources. That report will be taken to the Washington summit in 2024 and a specific roadmap for that “southern flank” will be drawn up.
The Executive of Pedro Sánchez has been flying that flag in NATO for two years: that Spain is in solidarity with what is happening in Eastern Europe, but also wants solidarity for the risks that may come from the south, in the form of terrorism, migratory waves or drug trafficking. Very important risks of a multidimensional nature that come from the south and that affect the allied territory.
The southern threat was included in the Madrid Strategic Concept, signed at the summit in July last year and which is the “bible” of the Alliance for the next decade. The Concept includes the Sahel (the countries of the African belt under the Sahara desert), middle East y north africa among the regions of strategic interest, together with the region of the Indo-Pacifiche Black Sea or the Western Balkans.
Countries like Mali are, at the moment, a huge geopolitical unknown. The 17,400 members of the United Nations peacekeeping mission (MINUSMA) are going to withdraw by the end of the year, at the request of the Bamako coup government. Now, the fight against terrorism will be done hand in hand with Russia and Wagner mercenaries. What impact will the fall from grace of their leader, Prigozhin, have after the mutiny on June 24? How is the group of soldiers of fortune going to be reconfigured in the world?
Possible leadership of a brigade
Pedro Sánchez could announce at the summit this Tuesday and Wednesday that Spain is a candidate to lead a NATO brigade (some 3,000 soldiers) on the eastern flank, as part of the new scheme for the Defense and Dissuasion Area (DDA, in its acronym in English). As reported by El Periódico de Catalunya, from the Prensa Ibérica group, this unprecedented order from the Atlantic Alliance to the Spanish Armed Forces is on track to materialize this autumn and become operational next year, after the allies activate the reinforcement plans of the DDA that now have to be reflected in the summit that NATO begins this Tuesday in Vilnius. Moncloa has not wanted to confirm it for the moment.
In the three sessions that will occupy the Heads of State and Government of the NATO countries, the minimum economic contribution will also be discussed. In this sense, Spain is going to defend that, beyond the famous 2% contribution of GDP to Defense, the amount spent on the acquisition of new military capabilities should be taken into account. The commitment is 20%, but Spain already exceeds 30%according to Moncloa, and that figure is going to increase with the greater allocations to Defense committed by the Government of Pedro Sánchez.
Zelensky at the NATO summit
As already happened in Madrid, the Turkish president is expected to monopolize the spotlight. Recep Tayip Erdogan now calls for Turkey’s path to the EU to be opened to lift his veto on Sweden’s entry into NATO. The Spanish Government interprets his words as an intention to renew the accession process at 27, rather than as a necessary link between one thing and the other.
Erdogan was one of the first NATO heads of state and government to arrive in Vilnius this Monday to participate in the summit. There will be, among others, the president of the United States, Joe Biden and the president of Ukraine, Volodimir Zelenski, who will finally attend in person.
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The Vilnius summit will be an important occasion for kyiv, because, among other things, they want to launch a Ukraine-NATO Council, which alleviates the country’s desire to enter the Alliance. Concrete security guarantees are not expected to come out, as kyiv wants, but a multi-year support plan is. In addition, the group of the seven most advanced countries in the world, the G7, could issue a communiqué of bilateral commitment to Ukraine.
The meeting takes place amid heavy security measures, in a city, Vilnius, which is only 35 kilometers from Belarus, an ally of Russia in the war against Ukraine. To guarantee the safety of all these leaders, some 3,000 Lithuanian soldiers and another 1,000 Alliance soldiers, in addition to deploying several German Patriot systems to intercept ballistic missiles or combat aircraft, reports EFE. The Nasams anti-aircraft missile battery that Spain has deployed in Latvia will defend the skies over Lithuania during the event.
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