2023-07-13 13:07:54
Updated Thursday, July 13, 2023 – 13:07
250 senators handpicked by the former military junta (2014-2019) participate in the election.
Thai deputies vote to elect the next ‘premier’.AFPAsia Two Germans are arrested for the murder of the businessman who appeared in a freezer in Thailand
The Thai Parliament votes on Thursday the election of the prime minister with the progressive candidate Pita Limjaroenrat as a favorite, although the election is mired in uncertainty due to the participation of 250 senators handpicked by the former military junta (2014-2019).
The reformist party Avanzar (Move Forward) of Pita scores a surprising victory in the elections held in May and, thanks to a coalition together with seven other pro-democratic opposition parties, it has secured 312 of the 750 seats in Parliament, made up of 500 deputies and 250 senators.
To get elected prime minister, however, you need to reach at least 376 support.
Despite the fact that the result of the elections has been interpreted as a repudiation of the militaryIn power since the 2014 coup, for the new parliamentarians the task of forming the new government is far from easy, especially due to the discrepancies around Avanzar’s position on reforming the lèse majesté law.
If today no candidate gets the majority of votes, There are two other votes scheduled on July 19 and 20.
These are the keys on the different scenarios of what can happen:
PITA BECOMES PRIME MINISTER
To be named Thailand’s 30th prime minister, Pita, 42, and his coalition need the endorsement of at least 64 other representatives or senators.
Pita is confined to having “enough” support in the Senate to become prime minister, although several senators have backtracked in recent days and announced that they will no longer vote for the leader of Avanzar, as they are “concerned” by the “policies” of the party.
Likewise, doubts about his eligibility to become prime minister fall on Pita, since he the Constitutional Court will consider a complaint about the possession of shares of a television channel (inoperative since 2007), something prohibited by electoral laws.
PITA, DISQUALIFIED, BUT THE COALITION CONTINUES
If the reformist leader is disqualified or fails to reach the necessary votes, the other heavyweight in the opposition coalition, the Pheu Thai – which achieved only 10 seats less than Avanzar-, may take the step to present one of its three candidates.
The Pheu Thai, due to experience and background, would have an easier time getting support in the Senate, since, unlike Avanzar, it supports the controversial law of lèse majesté, which punishes any offense against the monarchy of the country with up to 15 years in prison. pass.
THE PHEU THAI ALIGNS WITH THE CONSERVATIVES
Another possibility, although less feasible, is that Pheu Thai leaves the pro-democracy coalition and join forces with the parties aligned with the military and the monarchy to obtain the figures.
It would, however, be a risky move that could cost the credibility of the party, whose previous formations were harassed by the military and were overthrown in two coups.
Unlike Avanzar, Pheu Thai has shown more ambiguous positions regarding its political alignment, although experts agree that an improbable “betrayal” could mean greater popular support for Avanzar in future elections.
CONVERSATIONAL GOVERNMENT IN MINORITY
Another situation, controversial but legal, is that the 250 senators -elected by the extinct military junta- choose to support a conservative candidate and closer to the military that manages to gather 126 supports in the lower house.
In this list you can find Prawit Wongsuwona general involved in the 2014 coup who has served as deputy prime minister in recent years, or Anutin Charnvirakulthe architect of the legalization of marijuana in the Buddhist kingdom and who has played a pivotal role in the outgoing government.
This minority government in the House of Representatives would be very weak and could be removed once the Senate is renewed, scheduled for May 2024.
INTERIM GOVERNMENT UNTIL 2024
In the event that no one obtains support, the current interim prime minister and former leader of the extinct military junta, Prayut Chan-ocha, could occupy the chair on an interim basis until the renovation of the upper house unblocks this impasse.
Prayut, who led the 2014 uprising and was elected prime minister in the controversial 2019 elections, said this week that he would abandon politics once a replacement is found.
COUP
Thailand accumulates a long history of coups and, although the representatives of the Army have denied the possibility of a military uprising “for now”, experts assess that it is a hypothesis that cannot be ruled out.
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