Giorgia Meloni is flirting with the European PP ahead of the 2024 elections

2023-07-15 16:00:33

Two dates are attracting unprecedented attention these days Italian politician. The first, in chronological order, are the Spanish elections of 23J. The second, the general elections in Poland. The explanation is that the European People’s Party (PPE) and the Prime Minister of Italy, Giorgia Melonihave been exploring one possible alliance facing the 2024 European elections. However, the PPE does not look favorably on some very radical partners of Meloni, who leads the Party of European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), which has complicated the operation.

The Polish grievance is the most visible. The next generals in Poland will be held in October and, unless there are any surprises, the two main rivals from contention will be the current prime minister, Mateusz Morawieckiof the far-right party Law and Justice (PiS), and Donald Tusk, leader of the main opposition formation, the conservative Civic Platform. The problem is that Morawiecki is from the ECR and Tusk from the EPP, so the clash is direct. Meloni, in addition, nor has he managed to convince the Poles to support the European plan on migration.

Troublesome companions

Different is the case of Vox. The main problem here is in the speech against European integration of the Spanish formation, say the observers. “At the recent meeting of the EPP in Rome, they clearly told us that there are very significant differences. The EPP only wants (alliances with) forcesconstructive and non-destructivewith Europeanists and not with anti-Europeanists», says Valerio Valentini, journalist of the Italian newspaper ‘Il Foglio’, who attended the event.

“The message of the PPE a Melons is that must be released of his more problematic colleagues”, reasons Valentini. “It is clear that Meloni is interested in having one relevant role in Europe», adds the political scientist Arturo Varvelli, of the European Council on Foreign Relations. Which might also explain Meloni’s efforts to show herself as one faithful ally of NATO and with seamless support in Ukraine.

However, some analysts believe that despite the obstacles, Meloni has options. An alternative would be to agree alone (with the PPE, without the rest of the ECR), but this would involve an earthquake within the ECR, a group that Meloni has chaired since 2020 and which has just revalidated her in the position for one year month. Another option could go through to prevail within his group, the one who threatens with one ECR output of formations that do not fit their wishes.

The Italian partner

The MEP Nicholas Procaccinico-president of the ECR, rules out both scenarios, since, according to him, it is unthinkable for Meloni to leave the ECR and, moreover, the EU there is already a kind of alliance between the right. “And it manifests itself every time we vote together. It’s no news that there is one proximity of principles, values ​​and programs», he says in response to EL PERIÓDICO. Even so, looking to the future, “what we expect is a shift from the center (of the Eurochamber) to the right, without the socialists», he adds before suggesting that the solution could be a non-formal but de facto alliance.

The truth is that the situation is delicate in Italy in the domestic sphere. This is because, on the one hand, an eventual formalization of an alliance with the EPP may not be accepted by the hardest part of Meloni’s party. On the other hand, Meloni’s main government ally in Italy, the League of Matthew Salvinibelongs to another European family, Identity and Democracy. However, Francesco LollobrigidaMeloni’s minister and brother-in-law, said this week that the alliance is still possible.

conveniences

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In reality, finding an agreement with Meloni is also of the interest of the PPE. The reasons are multiple. The first is that the Italian party that currently makes up the EPP is precisely that Come on Italyof the missing Silvio Berlusconia formation that today is at risk of lose a lot of votes in the 2024 European elections and may not even enter the European Parliament. A scenario that, if consummated, would leave the PPE without its Italian representative.

The second is that it is possible that the PPE need he vot of the’ECR to reach solid majorities in the most important votes, whatever happens in the 23J and the Polish elections. The latest polls highlight this: the leader of Germans would have between 27% and 29% of the votes.