USA and Russia return to sit at the table on Ukraine
A phone call extends life, you know. In this case it could re-tie a thread that seemed definitively broken, the diplomatic thread between United States and Russia. Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin speak to each other for the second time in less than a month and they do so at the request of the Kremlin, which at the same time agreed to sit at a table even several times between 10 and 13 January between bilateral Washington- Moscow and summit Born-Russia and Organization. Close consultation with US allies and partners has been “a priority for the administration from the start,” the official said, and Biden will also point this out to Putin.
The “tsar” is obviously not on the list of allies or partners of Washington. But it is not even said that it should remain a enemy forever. Beyond what will be said in the phone call and above all beyond what will be communicated externally (as always, on these occasions, the rhetoric and the narrative message that one wants to pass on to one’s “public” and population of reference), the signal of the restart of the dialogue, however tense, is very significant. According to the indiscretions of the stars and crawls media, the interview would have been requested by Putin and accepted by Biden in the belief that “when it comes to Russia there is nothing better than a direct leader-leader dialogue”.
Ukraine tests for a future potential thaw between the US and Russia
The focus will obviously be Ukrainebut it is more of an ultimate end than a means. A test to test the respective positions, in view of a future potential thaw from an anti-Chinese perspective. But let’s start from Kiev. According to US media forecasts, the head of the White House will offer his Russian colleague a “diplomatic path” to ease tensions, but at the same time he will reaffirm the strengthening of the Russian military presence on the border with Ukraine and is also ready for harsh sanctions against Moscow in the event of an attack.
Russia, for its part, wants “legally binding security guarantees “, which basically aim to avoid a further enlargement of NATO to the east and which Putin has already described as “unacceptable”. Biden cannot be seen too soft, indeed he cannot be seen at all soft with Moscow after the Afghanistan affair. But the willingness to dialogue is already a signal that the Kremlin has been grasped.
The elephant on the handset of Biden and Putin: Xi Jinping
The two great rivals study each other, aware of the implicit presence of an elephant in the room. Namely China. Biden wants to avoid it happening at all costs the final alignment between Moscow and Beijing. Event underestimated for a long time, perhaps too long, since Pentagon, but that no longer appears science fiction. Recently, the Sinorussian military forces have participated together in repeated military exercises involving both their respective naval and air fleets, as well as land troops. With the joint passage, among other things, of military ships in the Tsugaru Strait, which divides the two main islands of the Japanese archipelago.
A warning to Tokyo, increasingly aligned with Washington, and a direct message to the US: “You do the Aukus, but we are ready to move together”. It is no coincidence that Ukraine and Taiwan are often experienced and presented in a rather specular way. Lately Putin and Lavrov they explicitly backed the Chinese claims on Taiwan, as well as several articles in the Beijing state media that present the Ukrainian affair in a way that favors the Kremlin’s rhetoric. December 15 Putin and Xi Jinping had a new virtual interview, yet another year of 2021 “for the development of the Russian-Chinese global strategic partnership”. And they will meet in person at the Beijing 2022 Olympic Winter Games in early February.
China-Russia: cooperation not only military, but also financial and space
Sinorussian cooperation is deepening at all levels. For example, you work on the project to create a financial structure independent and integrated for commercial relations outside SWIFT. The goal is to limit the power of the dollar and create an autarchic platform that protects from US sanctions. At the same time, the process of internationalization of the digital yuan continues to be strengthened. Beijing and Moscow work to integrate their digital ecosystems by working jointly on operating systems. A kind of recreation of a blocky world. Meanwhile, the Moscow Exchange Group calls on the financial systems of the two countries to integrate even more, speaking of the infinite potential of the union. And a new space cooperation program is announced that will also include a project to create one International Lunar Research Station on the surface of the moon by 2035.
Biden wants to avoid a total alignment between Russia and China, which would materialize the worst case scenario for any superpower: having both possible challengers united against her.