Title: Fragile Stability: Russia’s Leadership Grapples with Reality Amid a Failing Rebellion
Subtitle: Dysfunction, Disinformation, and Ominous Signs of Crack on the Russian Front Lines
By Dara Massicot
In the aftermath of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed rebellion, Russia finds itself teetering on the edge of an alternate reality, with its leaders disconnected from the true state of affairs. As the country’s defensive positions remain intact, questions loom over the future of Russia’s campaign in Ukraine.
The surreal sequence of recent events speaks volumes about the leadership’s disconnect. Russian troops ushered Wagner columns into Moscow, greeted by curious civilians with snacks, only for President Vladimir Putin to portray this sight as a representation of a unified Russia. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu went into hiding, resurfacing days later to commend officers for their loyalty while his most experienced general, Sergei Surovikin, disappeared after requesting Wagner to stand down. Meanwhile, the enigmatic figure behind it all, Yevgeny Prigozhin, oscillates between being ignored and seemingly meeting with Putin to mend fences.
Amid this bizarre backdrop, the war effort continues unabated on the ground. Operations continued as planned during the brief rebellion, with no signs of mass refusal, desertions, or mutinies. Russia’s defensive positions span from Belgorod to Crimea and, for now, remain secure.
However, the endemic problems plaguing Russia’s campaign are poised to worsen. Defense Minister Shoigu and General Valeriy Gerasimov, the highest-ranking officer, have consistently demonstrated ineptitude in conducting the war effort. Kept in power by Putin for their loyalty, they are now even more likely to suppress negative information and present a distorted image of the war. The ongoing housecleaning within the military will only compound the dysfunction, as the Kremlin chooses to reinforce failure instead of addressing critical issues.
Despite his involvement in the failed rebellion, Prigozhin’s criticisms of the war are dangerous because they are accurate. He highlights the mismanagement by out-of-touch bureaucrats, leading to logistical problems and ammunition shortages. Prigozhin also accuses Shoigu and Gerasimov of downplaying bad news, misleading Putin, and engaging in petty intrigues with subordinates. He emphasizes the stark contrast between how the elite evade military service while the less privileged perish in combat.
The cocoon of loyal interlocutors surrounding Putin filters out these problems, presenting a concocted view of the war to both the president and an uninformed public. Dmitri Medvedev, the deputy head of Russia’s national security council, claims massive military recruitment figures, conveniently ignoring the reality. The Ministry of Defense makes exaggerated claims of destroying enemy equipment, while Shoigu defiantly asserts that everything is proceeding according to plan.
The sudden disappearance of General Surovikin reveals the underlying turmoil. Known for his relentless tactics and responsibility for constructing Russia’s defensive positions, he was demoted in favor of General Gerasimov, whose winter offensive proved to be ineffective and costly. Surovikin, revered in military circles, now faces rumors of detention as punishment for his links to Prigozhin and possible knowledge of the rebellion. The Kremlin’s delay in releasing information about his whereabouts indicates a precarious situation.
In the climate of suspicion and uncertainty, self-censorship among top military leaders is likely to increase. Shoigu and Gerasimov, more reliant than ever on Putin for their safety and positions, are inclined to conceal or soften bad news from the battlefield to keep the president’s confidence. This further erodes the Kremlin’s understanding of the true state of the war, weakening their position at a critical juncture.
While the Russian front lines remain intact for now, signs of vulnerability abound. Questions persist about the full withdrawal of Wagner troops from Ukraine. If they depart, regular military units will bear the brunt of higher casualties at a time when losses are already difficult to endure. According to Britain’s armed forces chief, the Russian Army has lost half its combat effectiveness and may struggle to withstand the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive. Frontline units are fatigued, lacking sufficient reserves, and facing constant Ukrainian strikes on integral targets.
Ukrainian forces, too, face their own set of challenges. Artillery bombardments persist, and without adequate air support, clearing Russian minefields becomes an arduous task for combat engineers. When Ukrainian forces successfully breach Russian trenches, they often find them empty. The recent provision of cluster munitions by the United States offers some respite in their struggle.
As Russia’s leadership remains entrenched in dysfunction and disinformation, the pressure of their bad choices mounts. The cracks in the Russian front lines may well deepen, as Ernest Hemingway aptly said, “gradually, then suddenly.”
Dara Massicot is a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation and a former analyst of Russian military capabilities at the U.S. Department of Defense.