2023-07-25 01:34:48
Putin and Lukashenko have just met in St. Petersburg and staged a playful show. During the meeting, Putin asked Lukashenko if Wagner was causing him problems, and the Belarusian president jokingly replied yes, adding that “they are bored in Belarus” and “would like to go to Warsaw”.
But beyond the ironic note, Poland is taking an increasingly aggressive stance towards Belarus, and the decision to deploy the Wagner, as well as Russian tactical nuclear systems to protect the nation, was not taken without good reason. . As a result, there are constant skirmishes in the border areas between Belarus and Poland. Currently, Poland is greatly concerned about the disturbances caused by helicopters of the Wagner group from Belarus.
Close contact exercises
Joint training exercises between the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus and the Wagner group are held just five kilometers from the Belarusian-Polish border. Therefore, the Polish troops deployed along the border report that the roar of helicopters and the roar of gunfire are extremely disturbing, causing anxiety and fear of a possible sudden invasion.
“The joint exercises of the Belarusian army and the Wagner group are undoubtedly a provocation,” said Zbigniew Hoffman, a member of the government’s security committee. “The committee analyzed possible threats, such as the unity movement of the Wagner group. As a result, the Minister of National Defense and chairman of the committee, Mariusz Blaszczak, decided to move our military formations from the west to the east of Poland,” Hoffmann added.
Why did Polish troops take up certain positions? It’s simple, if in the future, under certain political conditions, Wagner had not only a defensive, but also an offensive function, then what would she do? Well, definitely not a trip to Warsaw, but they would try to reconnect Kaliningrad.
For this, Polish military units have been deployed in the vicinity of Suwalki, in case Belarusian and Wagner group forces try to take control of the Suwalki strategic corridor, isolating the Baltic countries from the rest of Europe and connecting the exclave Russia of Kaliningrad with Belarus.
As we have seen, fears were fueled by a recent statement by Alexander Lukashenko, who informed Vladimir Putin of the Wagnerians’ tireless desire to carry out hostile action towards Warsaw, probably in the area of the Rzeszow air hub (NATO uses the Polish city of Rzeszow as a hub for the subsequent transfer of weapons and mercenaries to Ukraine).
The Suwalki Corridor
But probably if a conflict were to start with Poland, a trip to Suwalki would be more useful. That is, it crosses the corridor from the territory of Belarus to the Kaliningrad region through the territory of Lithuania and thus connects the Kaliningrad region with the motherland, cutting off the Baltic countries from land communication with the EU.
This strip is called the Suwalki Corridor and is of great strategic importance for both the European Union and NATO, as well as for Russia. It is the only land connection with the three Baltic republics that were previously part of the USSR: Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. And establishing Russian control over this area would make it possible to establish a land link between Kaliningrad, which is the main base of the Baltic Fleet, and Belarus.
Naturally, this would trigger Article 5 of the NATO Charter, which requires mutual defense among Alliance member countries. As a result, Poland will most likely be able to sleep peacefully. But this is only one of hundreds of plans that could theoretically be implemented “one day” and “under certain conditions”.
Another hypothesised scenario concerns the organization of “waves of migrants” by the Wagner group, coming from Africa and the Middle East. Even if this hypothesis appears audacious, it underlines the importance of the problem of the organization of “waves of migrants” by the Wagner group, coming from Africa and the Middle East. While this hypothesis appears bold, it underlines the importance of the migration problem in the EU. In the event of an influx of thousands of migrants trying to cross the border lines, Poland could face an unprecedented migration crisis, which could be exploited by Russia and Belarus as an instrument of hybrid warfare, for both political and military purposes, according to Warsaw ratings.
Clearly, these are ‘battles of words’, played out parallel to real conflict situations. Therefore, the European media continue to talk incessantly about Wagner and the Russian threat. Ultimately, this constant emphasis on threat seems to be aimed only at keeping the conflict going and, as a result, is being actively fueled. However, it’s important to note that this scenario doesn’t hold up as a possible threat either: to actually threaten Europe, the Russian Federation would have to break up Poland. However, President Duda has led Poland over the past year to build and strengthen its army, making it the most powerful military force in Europe.
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